[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 72.4W at
30/0900 UTC or 60 nm WSW of nthrn tip of Guajira Pnsula Colombia
moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Peak seas to 12 ft within 120 nm northern semicircle from the
center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the
central and eastern Caribbean between 66W and 76W. On the
forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or
northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday. Some strengthening is forecast through
Friday while the system is approaching Central America and again
on Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity remains
poorly organized with an area of low pressure located over the
far NW Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to move slowly
westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern
Mexico later today. Some slow development is still possible, and
it could still become a short-lived tropical depression near the
coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas
later today. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days.
For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please
see products issued by your National Weather Service office.
Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 25W,
extending from 03N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 17W and 30W.

A pair of tropical waves are in the western Atlantic, one with
axis along 49W and the other along 54W, each moving at 20 kt and
15 kt, respectively. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
14N between 46W and 56W. These two waves are forecast to merge
late today and move over the Lesser Antilles and the E Caribbean
Fri and Sat.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 87W, S of
18N, moving W near 15 kt. There is no significant convection
associated with this wave at the present time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of
Senegal across 10N19W to near a tropical wave at 06N24W. There is
no significant convection directly associated with the trough over
waters. An ITCZ extends from 05N25W across 04N35W to 04N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 100 nm along either
side of this feature.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama, the
Panama-Colombia border and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for more
information on a low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf.

An upper-level trough reaches west-southwestward from a low near
Homestead, Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found along the Florida west coast, and
over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge runs
southwestward from a 1023 mb high over the Florida-Georgia border
to near Tampico, Mexico. It is dominating much of the Gulf, except
the northwestern Gulf with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast outside of the northwest Gulf low pressure area,
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two in the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
weather in the basin.

Fresh to locally strong ENE to E trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft
exist across the north-central and eastern basin. Moderate to
fresh ENE trades and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the southwestern
basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas at 2 to 5 ft
prevail for the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move to
12.1N 73.5W Thu morning, 12.0N 77.5W Thu evening, 11.7N 80.9W Fri
morning, 11.4N 83.7W Fri evening, 11.3N 86.6W Sat morning, and
11.5N 88.8W Sat evening. Two will change little in intensity as it
moves near 12.5N 94.0W late Sun. A tropical wave with axis near
53W will merge with the trailing wave on Thu and move across the
Lesser Antilles along with a surge of winds and waves. The wave is
forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean on Fri, and into
the southwestern Caribbean Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from central Florida to 32N77W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from the east coast
of central and northern Florida to 76W. At the central Atlantic, a
surface trough near 28N49W is producing scattered moderate
convection north of 25N between 45W and 50W. Refer to the Tropical
Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A large dome of 1034 mb high over the north central Atlantic is
sustaining gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas
north of 22N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. To the
south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are evident from 09N to 22N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles.
Farther east, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 7 to
11 ft in northerly swell are seen north of 14N between the African
coast and 30W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging related to the 1034 mb
high is forecast to prevail through the forecast period, supporting
return flow in the west-central Atlantic waters. Tightening
pressure gradient between the ridge and the passage of both
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a strong trailing tropical wave
will lead to fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico as well as the Caribbean passages through Mon.

$$
Ramos
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