[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 70.6W at
30/0300 UTC or 55 nm ESE of Guajira Peninsula, Colombia and
moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas
near 12 ft are up to 90 nm in a northern semicircle from the
center. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
northwest of the center from 12N to 14N between 70W and 73W. On
the forecast track, the system will move from the coast of
northwestern Venezuela across the northern Guajira Peninsula of
Colombia Thu morning; then into the southwestern Caribbean Sea Thu
afternoon through Fri before approaching the coast of Nicaragua
Fri evening. Conditions will become more conducive for development
once the system enters the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and is
expected to become a tropical storm Thu afternoon or evening.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A poorly organized low pressure is
over the northwestern Gulf east of the Texas-Mexico border near
26.0N 95.6W at 30/0000 UTC. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted northeast of the center from 27N to 38N
between 93W and 95W. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft are present in this area. This system is forecast to move
slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and
northern Mexico by early Thu. Some slow development is still
possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression
near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over
Texas later on Thu. This system has a medium chance for tropical
cyclone development through the next 48 hours. Regardless of
development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the
Texas coast for the next few days. For more information about the
potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your
National Weather Service office. Please see the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from the Cabo Verde
Islands southward, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 18W and 25W.

Two central Atlantic tropical waves are nearing each other. The
first one is near 46W from 17N southward, and moving W near 20
kt. The second one is near 53W from 12N southward into French
Guiana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 04N to 13N between 46W and 55W. These
two waves are interacting and might merge on Thu. During this
process, slow development is possible before reaching the Windward
Islands late Fri or early Sat. Please see the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A broad Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from just south of
the Dominican Republic southward into western Venezuela, and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring across the north-central and
northeastern Caribbean Sea, and northwestern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from just east of
the Yucatan Peninsula southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into
the East Pacific Ocean, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are present from the Gulf of Honduras
to just south of the Yucatan Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of
Senegal across 10N19W to near a tropical wave at 06N24W. There is
no significant convection directly associated with the trough over
waters. An ITCZ extends from 05N25W across 04N35W to 04N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 100 nm along either
side of this feature.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Panama, the
Panama-Colombia border and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning for more
information on a low pressure system over the northwestern Gulf.

An upper-level trough reaches west-southwestward from a low near
Homestead, Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found along the Florida west coast, and
over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge runs
southwestward from a 1023 mb high over the Florida-Georgia border
to near Tampico, Mexico. It is dominating much of the Gulf, except
the northwestern Gulf with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds
and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast outside of the northwest Gulf low pressure area,
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two in the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the
Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
weather in the basin.

Fresh to locally strong ENE to E trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft
exist across the north-central and eastern basin. Moderate to
fresh ENE trades and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the southwestern
basin. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas at 2 to 5 ft
prevail for the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move to
12.1N 73.5W Thu morning, 12.0N 77.5W Thu evening, 11.7N 80.9W Fri
morning, 11.4N 83.7W Fri evening, 11.3N 86.6W Sat morning, and
11.5N 88.8W Sat evening. Two will change little in intensity as it
moves near 12.5N 94.0W late Sun. A tropical wave with axis near
53W will merge with the trailing wave on Thu and move across the
Lesser Antilles along with a surge of winds and waves. The wave is
forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean on Fri, and into
the southwestern Caribbean Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from central Florida to 32N77W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from the east coast
of central and northern Florida to 76W. At the central Atlantic, a
surface trough near 28N49W is producing scattered moderate
convection north of 25N between 45W and 50W. Refer to the Tropical
Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A large dome of 1034 mb high over the north central Atlantic is
sustaining gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas
north of 22N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. To the
south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are evident from 09N to 22N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles.
Farther east, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 7 to
11 ft in northerly swell are seen north of 14N between the African
coast and 30W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging related to the 1034 mb
high is forecast to prevail through the forecast period, supporting
return flow in the west-central Atlantic waters. Tightening
pressure gradient between the ridge and the passage of both
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a strong trailing tropical wave
will lead to fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico as well as the Caribbean passages through Mon.

$$

Chan
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