[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 292334
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southern Caribbean Sea near
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low
pressure are over the western Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and
found a closed wind circulation.  However, at this time the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is too poorly organized
to designate the system as a tropical depression.  This system is
forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern
Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development
is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical
depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves
inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of development,
heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for
the next few days. For more information about the potential for
heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the western tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Slow development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to
move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and
then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further
development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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