[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291211
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 11.4N 66.4W at
29/1200 UTC or 160 nm ESE of Curacao moving W at 26 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are within 180
nm NE semicircle of the center. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is from 09N to 15N between 61W and 69W. On the forecast
track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and
the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula
of Colombia early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
on Friday. Conditions appear conducive for development while the
disturbance remains over water, and it is expected become a
tropical storm while moving westward across the southern Caribbean
Sea. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly
westward and approach the coast of Texas today. Slow development
of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived
tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland tonight
or Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible
along portions of the Texas for the next few days. Please see the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis along 17W,
extending from 03N to 17N, and moving W near 15 kt. There is no
deep convection associated with the wave at the current time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 40W,
extending from 02N to 17N, and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 34W and 47W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 49W,
extending from 02N to 13N, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N between 47W
and 58W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 79W,
extending S of 18N, and moving W at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 15N between 75W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 10N21W. The ITCZ begins
near 06N22W and continues along 06N34W, then resumes near 07N50W
to 10N59W. For information about convection, see the tropical
waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for more
information about a low pressure over the NW Gulf with medium
chance of development within the next two days.

Aside from the area of low pressure in the NW basin where winds
are mainly gentle to moderate, a generally weak pressure gradient
in the region continue to support light to gentle variable winds
elsewhere. Seas are 2-3 ft basin-wide, except for 3-4 ft seas in
the NW Gulf associated with the invest AL95.

For the forecast outside of the northwestern Gulf, a weak ridge
will continue to dominate the Gulf through the week, supporting
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for
details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two in the SE Caribbean.

With the Atlantic ridge persisting N of the region and the passage
of a tropical wave across the W Caribbean as well as the Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two in the SE Caribbean, trade winds in the
central and western portions of the basin remain mainly fresh with
seas between 6-7 ft, except to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia.
Over the NE Caribbean, the passage of the Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two is bringing fresh to strong winds to that area today,
continuing through Thu.

For the forecast outside the area impacting by Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two, a tropical wave located over the central tropical
Atlantic will likely approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu night,
cross the islands on Fri, and move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea late Fri and Fri night. A surge in winds and seas are expected
with this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high N of the area continue
to cover the entire subtropical waters. A weakness in the ridge
analyzed as a surface trough across the northern Bahamas is
generating scattered showers to that region and the Florida
seaboard. In the SW N Atlantic and S of 25N, winds are moderate to
fresh and from the east with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Over the
far eastern Atlantic, a strong pressure gradient against lower
pressure in NW Africa is supporting fresh NE winds along the coast
of NW Africa with seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
dominate the forecast waters through at least Fri, supporting
moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N, and gentle to
moderate E to SE winds north of 22N.

$$
Ramos/Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net