[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 281449
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 AM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

The system continues to produce vigorous deep convection and also
exhibits some banding features.  However, reports from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that there is no well-defined
center of circulation at this time.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again this
afternoon.

The system is expected to remain in a low-shear and moderately moist
atmospheric environment for the next couple of days.  However,
interaction with land and fast forward motion will likely limit
intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean
Sea later this week.  More significant strengthening, possibly into
a hurricane, could occur over the latter area.

Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion
estimate is kept the same, or 280/20 kt.  A strong mid-tropospheric
ridge is likely to remain anchored to the north of the system this
week.  Therefore a continued westward to west-northwestward motion
is expected through the forecast period.  The official forecast
track is mostly unchanged and remains close to the corrected
dynamical model consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela tonight through Wednesday. Localized flash
flooding will be possible.

2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday
morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of
Venezuela tonight and Wednesday evening.

3.  There is higher-than-normal uncertainty in the system's forecast
intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea late
Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts with
land from tonight through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z  9.8N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0000Z 10.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  29/1200Z 11.3N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/0000Z 11.7N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 12.1N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/0000Z 12.2N  75.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 12.1N  78.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 12.0N  84.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
120H  03/1200Z 12.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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