[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 9.3N 55.2W at
28/0900 UTC or 360 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 20 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within 90 nm NE
semicircle of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06N to 14N between 51W and 62W. On the
forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the
southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern
Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday
and Thursday. Conditions appear conducive for development if the
disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a
tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving
westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 31W
extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 30W and
39W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along
44W, extending from 03N to 16N, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between
40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 70W, S
of 16N, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring S of 16N between 64W and 76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 10N22W where the ITCZ
then begins and continues along 07N29W, it then resumes near
06N32W to 06N42W, and from 06N45W to 08N52W. For information about
convection, see the tropical waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf, which is
supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds with seas in the
2 to 4 ft range, except in the far NW basin where a surface trough
and associated low is providing moderate NE winds. Scattered
showers and tstms associated with this area of low pressure are
affecting the offshore waters of Texas and Louisiana.

For the forecast, the surface trough of low pressure located over
the north-central Gulf of Mexico will move generally westward and
approach the coast of Texas during the next few days. While
shower and thunderstorm activity with this system is currently
limited, some additional development is possible. Elsewhere, a
surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters Wed into the weekend,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow and slight to
moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features Section Above for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near 9.3N 55.2W 1009 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving W at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
While Two is currently ESE of the Windward Islands, a tropical
wave is in the central Caribbean generating isolated showers
between Hispaniola and Venezuela. In the SW basin, the eastern
extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered
showers and tstms, including the coastal and offshore waters of
Nicaragua. The pressure gradient between the north-central
Atlantic ridge and the tropical wave continue to support mainly
fresh trade winds across the eastern half of the Caribbean where
seas are in the 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, Two will move to 9.9N 58.2W this afternoon,
10.7N 62.3W Wed morning, 11.3N 66.3W Wed afternoon, 11.7N 70.2W
Thu morning, 12.0N 73.7W Thu afternoon, and 11.9N 77.1W Fri
morning. Two will change little in intensity as it moves near
11.8N 82.5W early Sat. Otherwise, the tropical wave behind Two is
forecast to bring winds and seas to the NE Caribbean from Fri to
Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features Section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

A large ridge centered by a 1033 mb high over the north-central
Atlantic is dominating the subtropical waters providing fair
weather conditions, except for scattered showers across the
southern and central Bahamas and adjacent waters due to a surface
trough. Moderate to fresh winds are associated with this trough
with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will remain
centered across the central Atlantic near 41N. A tropical wave
accompanied with winds and seas will move across the Caribbean
over the weekend with winds and seas extending across portions of
the SE offshore waters. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas
with this system as it moves W across the region Fri into late
Sun.

$$
Ramos
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