[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 9.3N 55.2W at
28/0900 UTC or 360 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 20 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within 90 nm NE
semicircle of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 06N to 14N between 51W and 62W. On the
forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the
southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern
Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday
and Thursday. Conditions appear conducive for development if the
disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a
tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving
westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 31W
extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 30W and
39W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along
44W, extending from 03N to 16N, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between
40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 70W, S
of 16N, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring S of 16N between 64W and 76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 10N22W where the ITCZ
then begins and continues along 07N29W, it then resumes near
06N32W to 06N42W, and from 06N45W to 08N52W. For information about
convection, see the tropical waves section.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf, which is
supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds with seas in the
2 to 4 ft range, except in the far NW basin where a surface trough
and associated low is providing moderate NE winds. Scattered
showers and tstms associated with this area of low pressure are
affecting the offshore waters of Texas and Louisiana.

For the forecast, the surface trough of low pressure located over
the north-central Gulf of Mexico will move generally westward and
approach the coast of Texas during the next few days. While
shower and thunderstorm activity with this system is currently
limited, some additional development is possible. Elsewhere, a
surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters Wed into the weekend,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow and slight to
moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features Section Above for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two.

An upper-level low near central Cuba is producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather and
gusty winds in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh ENE trades and seas at 5
to 7 ft are evident for the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh E
trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the central and
southwestern basin, except just north of Panama. Gentle to
moderate E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was near 8.7N
52.8W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT and moving W at 15 kt. Maximum
sustained winds were 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Two will move to
9.3N 55.3W Tue morning, 10.1N 59.7W Tue evening, and near 10.8N
63.9W Wed morning. Afterward, it will move to 11.4N 67.7W Wed
evening, 11.8N 71.6W Thu morning, and 11.8N 75.4W Thu evening. Two
will change little in intensity as it moves near 11.5N 81.7W late
Fri. Two is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to waters
near the southern Windward Islands late Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features Section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a Gale Warning off the coast
of Morocco.

An upper-level trough over the central Bahamas is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central
and southeast Bahamas, and near Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A large dome of 1024 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is
dominating north of 24N between 20W and the Georgia/Florida coast
with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft
are found from 09N to 24N between the central African coast and
the Lesser/Greater Antilles. Besides the gale winds, fresh to
strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident north of 24N
between the northwest African coast and 20W. Light to gentle with
locally moderate monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin, except area near Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two.

For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will remain
centered across the central Atlantic near 41N. A tropical wave
accompanied with winds and seas will move across the Caribbean
over the weekend with some of that energy extending across
portions of the Atlantic waters near the Windward Islands through
Sun. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this system as
it moves W across the region.

$$
Ramos
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