[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 8.7N 52.8W at
28/0300 UTC or 510 nm E of Trinidad and moving W at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. As of 0400 UTC, scattered
moderate convection is noted southeast of the center from 07N to
08N between 50W and 52W. Peak seas are near 11 ft northeast of the
center. Conditions remain conducive for development over the next
couple of days, and the disturbance will likely become a tropical
storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands or while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall
is expected over the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela
Tue night and into Wed. Tropical storm force winds are expected
over portions of the southern Windward Islands beginning late Tue
and into Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/280238.shtml?
and Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2+shtml/280238.shtml? for
more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a
trough of low pressure across Morocco/western Algeria is inducing
gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone
of Agadir. These gales are expected to continue through 28/03 UTC.
Seas will likely be 9 to 11 ft in the area. Please read the
latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An E Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from west of the Cabo
Verde Islands at 17N southward, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
06N to 11N between 27W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 15N southward,
and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 10N between 41W and 45W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 15N
southward into French Guiana, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 12N between
54W and 58W, and over southern French Guiana.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from 16N southward into
western Venezuela, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring over the south-central Caribbean waters
and northern Venezuela. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 kt are observed
south of the Dominican Republic near 16N71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough exits into the Atlantic through the Senegal
coast to southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands at 11N21W. Scattered
moderate convection is flaring up south of the trough along the
coast of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Three segments of the
ITCZ stretches from 11N21W to 08N28W, 07N30W to 07N39W, then
06N43W to 08N51W. Other than the convection near the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm along
either side of the third ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Basin, including the coast of Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough runs southeastward from near the Texas-Louisiana
border to the central Gulf. Another surface trough curves
southward from near Tampa, Florida to western Cuba. These features
are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the north-central, east-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found in the
areas, and also in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate
NE to E winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface trough near the north-central Gulf
will drift westward over the next few days. It is expected to
close into a modest low pressure near the northwestern Gulf on Tue
before moving over southeastern Texas Wed. Elsewhere, a surface
ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features Section Above for details on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two.

An upper-level low near central Cuba is producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather and
gusty winds in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh ENE trades and seas at 5
to 7 ft are evident for the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh E
trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the central and
southwestern basin, except just north of Panama. Gentle to
moderate E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was near 8.7N
52.8W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT and moving W at 15 kt. Maximum
sustained winds were 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Two will move to
9.3N 55.3W Tue morning, 10.1N 59.7W Tue evening, and near 10.8N
63.9W Wed morning. Afterward, it will move to 11.4N 67.7W Wed
evening, 11.8N 71.6W Thu morning, and 11.8N 75.4W Thu evening. Two
will change little in intensity as it moves near 11.5N 81.7W late
Fri. Two is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to waters
near the southern Windward Islands late Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features Section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a Gale Warning off the coast
of Morocco.

An upper-level trough over the central Bahamas is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central
and southeast Bahamas, and near Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

A large dome of 1024 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is
dominating north of 24N between 20W and the Georgia/Florida coast
with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft
are found from 09N to 24N between the central African coast and
the Lesser/Greater Antilles. Besides the gale winds, fresh to
strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident north of 24N
between the northwest African coast and 20W. Light to gentle with
locally moderate monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin, except area near Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two.

For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will remain
centered across the central Atlantic near 41N. A tropical wave
accompanied with winds and seas will move across the Caribbean
over the weekend with some of that energy extending across
portions of the Atlantic waters near the Windward Islands through
Sun. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this system as
it moves W across the region.

$$

Chan
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