[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
tropical wave located about 950 miles east-southeast of the southern
Windward Islands. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along the
wave axis near 08N47W. The disturbance is moving W around 16 kts.
Fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and seas of 8-11 ft are
in the vicinity of the wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days before the system
reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday
through Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast
of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a
persisting low pressure area over Western Sahara is inducing
gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone
of Agadir. These gales are expected to continue through 28/00 UTC.
Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the
latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis along 20W,
extending from 02N to 16N, and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to
12N and between 15W and 32W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 32W,
extending from 02N to 16N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and between 30W and
40W.

A tropical wave is just to the E of the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 62W, south of 17N and moving W around 15 kt. The wave is
generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over a great
portion of the Lesser Antilles, and across the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds will continue across the
Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through this morning
and spread across the ABC islands later today and tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
13N17W to 09N18W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N21W to 07N31W and
continues from 07N34W to 08N46W and then from 07N48W to 06N56W.
See the tropical waves section for information about convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting mainly
light to gentle variable winds and seas in the 1-2 ft range.
Otherwise, shallow moisture streaming from the Caribbean is
supporting scattered showers over the coastal and offshore waters
of SE Louisiana where a surface trough extends from 38N89W to
24N84W.

For the forecast, the surface trough will drift westward over the
next few days. Weak low pressure is expected to form from the
remnants of the trough across the north-central Gulf tonight and
drift west and inland through Wed. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge
will dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the week,
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave continues to generate showers and tstorms with
gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles and eastern
Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section for details.
Otherwise, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is over
the offshores of Colombia and Panama associated with the eastern
extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough. Strong high pressure
centered over the north-central Atlantic extends SSW into the
northern Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of mainly
fresh easterlies across the eastern half of the basin where seas
are in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean will continue through today as the Atlantic ridge
remains centered across the central Atlantic near 44N. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is
expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue,
possibly as a tropical cyclone, and move quickly through the
eastern Caribbean Sea Wed through Wed night, through the central
Caribbean Thu and across the western Caribbean late Thu through
Fri. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next couple of days before the system reaches the Windward
Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above
for details on the tropical waves traversing the basin and the
gale near the coast of Morocco.

The subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong ridge positioned
between Newfoundland and the Azores. The pressure gradient
between this system and lower pressures across the deep tropics
result in fresh to strong trades S of 23N and between Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. Seas in the area described are 6-11 ft, with
the highest seas occurring near 09N47W. The remainder of the
tropical Atlantic experiences moderate or weaker winds and seas of
3-6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extending from near 30N67W
southwestward to 25N76W will drift westward and weaken during the
next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain
centered across the central Atlantic near 44N. A strong tropical
wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, possibly as a tropical
cyclone, then move quickly through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed
through Wed night, and the central Caribbean Thu and Thu evening.
Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves
W across the region.

$$
Ramos
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