[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 270556
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
tropical wave located about 950 miles east-southeast of the southern
Windward Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon.  Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas later today.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and
northeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern
Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
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