[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located along 45W or about 1000 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands continues to show signs of organization.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on
either side of the wave, and mainly from 06N to 10N between 40W
and 50W. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis
near 08N44.5W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8-10 ft are
ahead of the wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to the middle part of this week with a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. This
system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 15
to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward
Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern Caribbean
Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are
likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning.
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
hurricanes.gov for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a
persisting low pressure area over Western Sahara is inducing
gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone
of Agadir. These gales are expected to continue through 28/00 UTC.
Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the
latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo- France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Four tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. One of them has the potential of tropical
cyclone formation and is described in the Special Features
section.

A tropical is along 16W from 02N to 15N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 10N between 14W and 20W.

A second tropical wave has its axis along 29W/30W from 02N to
14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed ahead of the wave axis 06N to 09N between 32W and 35W.

Another tropical wave is along 60W S of 16N. It is moving westward
at 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles, mainly S of Dominica, and
regional waters. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds will continue
across the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through
late tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 09N40W to 08N50W to
10N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 07N between 20W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough extends from coastal Mississippi to Southwest
Florida, and it is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the north-central and eastern Gulf, particularly E of 88W. A
1019 mb high pressure is analyzed W of the trough near 28N93W.
Mostly gentle winds prevail across the basin, based on the
latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak surface trough will
drift westward to west-southwestward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico over the next few days. Development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge
will dominate the Gulf waters early this week, supporting mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is currently producing showers and tstorms with
gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles. See the
Tropical Waves section for details.

The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough is along
10/11N in the SW Caribbean and is inducing some shower activity.
Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain up slope lifting
combined with available moisture are producing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over much of Cuba, Hispaniola and
Jamaica.

Recent ASCAT satellite data show moderate to locally fresh
trades across the south-central Caribbean, and mainly moderate
winds elsewhere, with the exception of gentle NE to E winds over
the NW part of the basin. Seas are 5-6 ft over the south-central
Caribbean, 3-5 ft elsewhere across the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean will continue through early Mon as the Atlantic ridge
remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave will
approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Please, refer
to the Special Features section for more details on this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above
for details on the tropical waves traversing the basin and the
gale near the coast of Morocco.

A surface trough extends from 31N75W to South Florida. Farther E,
another surface trough is analyzed from 31N68W to the central
Bahamas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the
latter trough affecting much of the Bahamas, and the Atlantic
waters from 22N to 29N between the trough and 60W. The remainder
of the Atlantic is under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores
High that has a 1033 mb center near 40N44W. Scatterometer data
provided observations of fresh to strong trades across the
tropical Atlantic. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted per altimeter
data within these winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough extending from near 31N75W
southwestward to South Florida will drift westward and weaken
during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will
remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong
tropical wave will approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday.
Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves
W across the region.

$$
GR
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