[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 180 nm
on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 18N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: warming cloud top
temperatures and dissipating precipitation are from 17N
southward between 70W and 80W.

An upper level inverted trough extends from the southern part of
the Yucatan Peninsula, northwestward, to the coast of Mexico
near 23N98W. Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave is along
97W/98W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. High clouds are in
the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland. The ITCZ is along 06N25W
04N38W 02N50W. Precipitation: numerous strong is in the coastal
plains of Africa from 09N to 15N between 14W and 18W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward
between 30W and 60W, and elsewhere from 15N southward from 20W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level inverted trough extends from the southern part of
the Yucatan Peninsula, northwestward, to the coast of Mexico
near 23N98W. Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave is along
97W/98W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. High clouds are in
the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27N84W in
the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from the SW corner of Louisiana, to a
1017 mb high pressure center that is near 28N94W, to 23N97W.

Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the Gulf of Mexico. The
sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the
weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan Peninsula and in
the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 17N
northward from the Anegada Passage westward. The cyclonic wind
flow is entering the area from the Atlantic Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong has been in
the area of cyclonic wind flow during the last 8 hours or so.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, beyond Costa
Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong is from 11N to 14N between 80W and 84W in
east central Nicaragua. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 15N
southward from 75W westward.

Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4
feet to 6 feet, are in the south central and southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Strong E winds, and sea heights that reach 7
feet, have been in the coastal waters of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet
to 4 feet, are elsewhere.

Fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail in the south
central Caribbean Sea into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate trade winds will dominate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 57W westward. A
stationary front is along 31N63W 28N67W 25N70W 21N71W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Gentle to moderate
NE winds, and sea heights ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet, are
within 120 nm to the northwest of the trough.

An upper level trough extends from a 33N46W cyclonic circulation
center to 19N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 150 nm on either side of the upper level trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 16N northward from 60W eastward.
A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 42N40W.

Light to gentle breezes, and sea heights that range from 2 feet
to 4 feet, are elsewhere from 60W westward. The subtropical
ridge covers the waters that are from 20N northward. Mostly
moderate NE to E winds are in the Atlantic Ocean. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 20N northward, and they
range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 20N southward.

A trough in the eastern waters will dissipate into Fri. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop over the NW waters tonight and
continue through Thu night as low pressure moves offshore the SE
U.S. north of the area.

$$
mt/al
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