[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A newly analyzed tropical wave is near 17W from the Gambia coast
southward, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 15W and
20W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 17N southward into
western Venezuela, and moving westward 5 to 10 knots. Scattered
showers are present near central Venezuela.

Another tropical wave is near 95W from the western Bay of Campeche
southward across Mexico into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving
westward 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring over the western Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends westward across the southern Senegal
coast through 13N25W to 11N36W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 05N between
Liberia, Ivory Coast and 15W. An ITCZ runs westward from 08N36W
through 07N50W to near Georgetown, Guyana. Scattered showers are
present up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for significant weather in the
Gulf. A 1021 mb high pressure south of Lake Charles, Louisiana is
dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas are evident for the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to
ESE winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft exit for the southern Gulf,
including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the 1021 mb high will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters, promoting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas. Winds off the western Yucatan peninsula and in
the Bay of Campeche will pulse to fresh at night through Thu
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough curves southwestward from the west-central
Atlantic across the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras. This
feature is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the northwestern and north-central basin, including Cuba,
Haiti and the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the basin. The Atlantic ridge
extending from a 1035 mb Azores High across 31N50W to near
Hispaniola is sustaining NE to E trade-wind regime for the most
of the basin. Fresh trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found across
the south-central basin north of Colombia and Venezuela. Gentle to
moderate trades with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail
over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to
moderate trades will dominate.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends southwestward from a 1017
mb low east of Bermuda across 31N61W to 25N71W, then a surface
trough continues from 25N71W to the southeastern Bahamas. Scattered
moderate convection is evident near and up to 210 nm south of this
boundary. Light to gentle with locally moderate ENE to ESE winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident from the Bahamas northward between
55W and the Florida coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin. Despite the presence of an Atlantic ridge, which supports
gentle to moderate NE to E trades north of 20N between the central
African coast and 55W; NE swell is keeping seas at 6 to 8 ft in
the area. Light to gentle NE to E trades and seas of 3 to 6 ft are
found from 09N to 20N between the central African coast and the
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to
5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the aforementioned surface trough will
drift westward over the Bahamas and weaken through Fri. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop east of the Georgia/northern Florida
coast tonight into Fri as a 1017 low pressure drifts off the
Georgia coast.

$$

Chan
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