[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is within 120 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 90 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 11N to 13N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough passes
through the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, western Honduras, and El
Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough is
along 10N74W in Colombia, to 08N79W, to SE Nicaragua.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough between 73W and 75W in Colombia; within 50 nm
on either side of the monsoon trough between 80W and 83W in
Panama; and from 11N to 12N between 80W and 82W in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in Costa Rica and Nicaragua and in the Nicaragua
coastal waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania near 19N16W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 15N25W, to 09N30W and 07N35W. The ITCZ continues from
07N35W to 05N49W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 25W and
35W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to
07N between 05W and 13W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is within 30 nm of the coast of
the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is between
the western sections of Guatemala, and in the entire area of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 97W, and in the
coastal waters of Mexico from 23N southward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward. This upper level cyclonic wind flow accompanies the
western Atlantic Ocean upper level trough. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward
from 60W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the Bahamas, in parts of southern Florida, and in
the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds span the entire area.
The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet from 26N northward,
and from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico,
away from the surface trough and the outflow boundary. The
surface pressure gradient is flat and weak.

A surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters providing mainly
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds off
the western Yucatan peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche will
pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through the middle
part of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
the Windward Passage westward.
An upper level trough extends from Hispaniola to northern
Colombia. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern
one-third of the Caribbean Sea.

One tropical wave has entered the southeastern Caribbean Sea
with its nearby precipitation. A second tropical wave is along
88W/89W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The
monsoon trough passes through the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize,
western Honduras, and El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to
08N79W, to SE Nicaragua. Precipitation: numerous strong is
within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 73W and
75W in Colombia; within 50 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough between 80W and 83W in Panama; and from 11N to 12N
between 80W and 82W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in Costa Rica
and Nicaragua and in the Nicaragua coastal waters.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the central Caribbean Sea.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere. The sea heights
range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, where
the wind speeds are comparatively the fastest. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

Atlantic high pressure centered NE of the area along with lower
pressure farther south over the southwest Caribbean and eastern
Pacific will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and
occasionally rough seas over mainly the south-central and
northwest Caribbean tonight. Winds and seas will then diminish
basin wide through mid week as the Atlantic ridge weakens, then
freshen across the south-central portions Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 60W westward. A
stationary front passes through 31N61W to 26N70W 26N76W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
area that is from 20N northward from 57W westward.
Gentle to moderate northeast winds are behind the stationary
front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 55W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N36W.
Isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 30W and 50W.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds are north of 27N east of 40W.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
wind flow is in the western Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights have
been ranging: from 7 feet to 10 feet from 20N northward from 39W
eastward in NE swell; from 4 to 6 feet elsewhere from 50W
eastward; from 24N southward between 50W and 60W; and from 2
feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front from 27N66W to the northern Bahamas will stall and
dissipate across the NW Bahamas Tue. The remnant trough will
then persist northeast of the Bahamas through mid week.
Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the NE
Atlantic and extend a ridge across the area.

$$
mt/al
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net