[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 50W, south
of 14N, and is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 70W,
south of 14N, and is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is
limited over water, and scattered moderate convection prevails in
Venezuela mainly south of 10N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W,
south of 20N, and is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N17W
to 07N38W. The ITCZ continues from 07N38W to 08N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N and E of 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and lower
pressure over Mexico is generating moderate to fresh SE winds in
the western Gulf with 4-6 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection
is observed along a surface trough in the eastern Bay of Campeche,
where winds are fresh to strong from the E with 5-7 ft seas.
Conditions are more favorable in the eastern Gulf, with gentle
winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist across the basin
through Sat. This pattern will support moderate to fresh SE to S
winds across the western half of the Gulf into Wed and light to
gentle variable winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish on
Thu as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas may
increase over the south-central Gulf by late Fri as low pressure
possibly approaches from the northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A strong gradient persists between subtropical high pressure and
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean. This pattern is supporting
fresh to strong easterly trade winds through the majority of the
basin with 6-8 ft seas. The strongest winds are in the south-
central Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. Fresh to strong NE
winds are funneling through the Windward Passage. A portion of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from southern Nicaragua to
northern Colombia, with embedded 1009 mb surface low near 11N80W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed near this
feature south of 14N between 75W-84W.

For the forecast, the surface ridge north of the area will persist
through the middle of the week, north of an active monsoon
trough over the southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support
fresh to strong E winds along with occasionally rough seas
between these features through at least mid-week. The strongest
winds are expected to be in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras. Looking ahead, low pressure over the western
Caribbean will move northwest through the Gulf of Honduras by the
end of the week and weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high in the central
Atlantic near 32N46W to central Florida. North of the ridge,
moderate southerly winds dominate with 3-5 ft seas. South of the
ridge, moderate to fresh easterly winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas.
Winds are gentle within the ridge axis with 2-4 ft seas. In the
central Atlantic, fresh easterly winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas.
In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds dominate with
6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge will meander east
to west along 26N through mid week, as the tail end of a weak
boundary moves eastward across the waters between northeast
Florida and Bermuda Thu and Fri. The ridge will build again along
25N by Sat.

$$
ERA
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