[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 01N to
14N with axis along 31W, moving W at roughly 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 29W and 36W.

A tropical wave is to the E of the Lesser Antilles extending from
06N to 20N with axis along 52W, moving W at roughly 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 49W and
60W.

A tropical wave in the Caribbean extends S of 20N with axis along
72W, moving W at roughly 15 kt. Associated convection is scattered
and moderate over central Hispaniola adjacent waters and numerous
strong inland over NW Venezuela and portions of northern Colombia.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends S of 18N along
84W, which has remained nearly stationary over the last 10 hours.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the
wave is across the Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 07N23W. The ITCZ continues from 07N23W to 06N26W, where
the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ
continues west of the wave from 05N31W to 02N51W. Convection is
isolated and weak along these boundaries.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the SW Caribbean
from 11N75W to 09N82W. Scattered moderate with isolated areas of
strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N between 73W and
84W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary in the eastern Gulf is producing a line of
scattered moderate convection from 26N83W to 24N86W to 26N89W.
Showers are also ongoing offshore NE Louisiana near a stationary
boundary, though the thunderstorms have stopped tonight.
Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure extends across the basin with
mainly gentle to moderate winds across the eastern and central
basin, outside of thunderstorms. In the western Gulf, the gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is causing
moderate to fresh southeasterlies west of 93W. Seas are 2-4 ft
across the basin.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extending from the Straits of
Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf by
early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and seas
by late Mon over the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish
thereafter into mid week as the ridge weakens.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure near the SW Caribbean is supporting mainly fresh to
strong trade winds across the majority of the central and eastern
basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. The
strongest winds are near the coast of Venezuela and Colombia,
where seas are 6-8 ft. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere in the eastern
and central basin, and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Other than the
previously discussed convection in the SW Caribbean related to
the East Pacific monsoon trough, a few showers and thunderstorms
are observed just south of the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will persist north of the area
from the western Atlantic to the southeast Gulf through the middle
of next week, north of an active monsoon trough over the
southwest Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong E
winds pulsing along with occasionally rough seas into early next
week between these features over mainly the south-central
Caribbean. Looking ahead, a trough will form over the western
Caribbean of Honduras by Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather pattern remains dominated by a ridge extending from
high pressure near the Azores towards the central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection is noted in the the Western Atlantic
north of 29N and west of 77W. Moderate S-E winds dominate the
area west of 50W and north of 22N with 3-5 ft seas. South of 22N,
winds increase fresh to strong from E with 5-8 ft seas. Winds are
mainly moderate to fresh from the NE across the central and
eastern basin, with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface ridge extending from the
north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift to the
north of the Bahamas to along 28N by early next week. This will
support mainly gentle S to SE winds across the region, except for
fresh winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches of the Windward
passage. The ridge will slightly weaken Wed as the tail of a cold
front moves across the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda.

$$
Ramos
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