[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091627
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 27W/28W from 16N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted near the tropical wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 50W from 14N
southward to the northern coast of Brazil, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 09N to 13N between 45W and 53W, from the Equator to 03N
between 49W and 52W including over northern Brazil, and ahead of
the tropical wave axis from 06N to 09N between 50W and 59W.

A tropical wave is in the southeast Caribbean Sea along 64W/65W
from 14N southward to across Venezuela, moving west at 10 to 15
kt. Isolated to scattered showers are possible along the coast of
Venezuela near the tropical wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean Sea along 83W from
12N southward across western Panama near the border with Costa
Rica, continuing into the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, moving
slowly west around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 12N between 81W and 84W. This tropical wave has
reached the eastern extent of the well established eastern
Pacific monsoonal circulation and is likely to become absorbed and
non detectable within the next 24 to 48 hours. Associated
moisture is being sheared from the northern portions of this wave
toward the northwest and across spreading across much of the NW
Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near the coast
of Senegal at 14N17W to south of the Cape Verde Islands to 10N26W.
The ITCZ axis continues west of a tropical wave from 08N29W to
just off the coast of northern Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N
between 16W and 27W, and from the Equator to 10N between 38W and
46W.

The monsoon trough axis extends from the northern coast of
Colombia near 11N74W to 1009 mb low pressure near 10.5N78W to
across Panama near 09N80W and continuing into the tropical eastern
Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 09N to 13N between 75W and 81W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered to numerous moderate convection has been ongoing
across interior portions of central America and into southeast
Mexico, northwestward across the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. A
surface trough is analyzed in this area from 22N95W to 18N93W.
A surface trough is also analyzed in the northeast Gulf from near
Apalachee Bay to 27N88W with isolated showers and thunderstorms
near it. Otherwise a ridge extends from near Florida Bay to the
central Texas coast. Gentle to moderate return flow dominates
across the basin, locally fresh west and northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less east of 88W, and 2-4 ft
west of 88W. Some haze is being reported across the southern and
west-central Gulf coastal stations.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge extending from the Straits
of Florida to the Texas coast will shift into the northeast Gulf
by early next week. This will allow slight increased winds and
seas by late Mon over the western Gulf, to include off the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging is over the Atlantic north of the Caribbean basin, while
low pressure is located west of the northern Caribbean coast of
Colombia. A very recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean due to a locally tight
pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure. Seas in
the same area are 6-8 ft. A weak 1010 mb low pressure area is
analyzed in the Gulf of Honduras with some scattered convection
nearby, and locally fresh winds with seas around 6 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light and variable
south of 11N in the SW Caribbean outside of any convection. Seas
are 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean and SW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft
across the remainder of the basin. A middle level trough extends
from the Leeward Islands west-southwest to the SW Caribbean and
is producing stable atmospheric conditions across much of the
basin. This is combining with Saharan air to the east of 77W to
produce fair and hazy skies.

For the forecast, weak ridging north of the area will maintain
pulses of fresh to strong winds over much of the south-central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sun, with light to
moderate E to SE winds elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough stretches northeastward from the Straits of
Florida to beyond 31N and Bermuda. Ample low level moisture
lingers across the area from the Bahamas to the Bermuda area.
Divergent winds near and south of this upper trough axis are
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the
central Bahamas and eastern Cuba to near Bermuda. A weak surface
trough is analyzed off the coast of northern Florida from 31N77W
to near Daytona Beach. Farther east, a dissipating stationary
front curves southwestward from 1018 mb low pressure just north of
the area near 32N48W to 26N59W to 28N67W. Moderate to locally
fresh winds were still possible near the front this morning, along
with residual 6-8 ft northerly swell. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed from 27N51W to 24N60W to 23N63W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 75-90 nm on either side of the
trough.

The remainder of the open tropical Atlantic waters is dominated
by ridging extending from the Azores high. Light to gentle winds
are noted near the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere north of 20N and northwest of the monsoon trough,
locally fresh northwest of a tropical wave approaching 30W. Fresh
to strong winds are blowing from offshore Morocco through the
Canary Islands to 20W, with seas of 7-10 ft with a gale warning
having ended earlier today in the Agadir area of Meteo-France.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail south of 20N, with seas of 6 to
locally 8 ft. Seas of 4-6 ft are across the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will gradually
strengthen across the region late Fri through the weekend to
produce fresh trades south of 22N and fresh S to SW winds to the
north of 28N and west of 72W.

$$
Lewitsky
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