[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081052 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 13N
southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09.5N between 40W
and 43W, and behind the wave from 01N to 10N between 32W and 40W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 14N
southward across Guyana, and moving westward near 20 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N
between 55W and 60W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W from 16N southward
across Panama and Pacific coastal Colombia, and moving westward
near 20 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate to strong convection
area seen from 05.5N to 11N between 76W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
northwestern Senegal near 16N16.5W to 13N21W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N16W to 05.5N22W to 03N28W to 07.5N38W, then resumes from
07.5N43W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 02N to 09.5N between 17W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper-level trough extends from the western Atlantic
W-SW across central Florida to the Mexican coast along 21.5N.
This feature is coupling with convergent southerly winds to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
southeastern Gulf south of 25N and Straits of Florida, including
the Florida Keys. Enhanced by divergent winds aloft, a surface
trough is producing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the Bay of Campeche. A 1016 mb high is centered over the
eastern Gulf near 27.5N85W, and is promoting moderate E-SE winds
and seas of 2 to 3 ft in the south- central and southeastern
Gulf.

Farther north, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 1
to 3 ft are present over the northeastern and north-central Gulf.
Moderate to fresh SE to SSE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail
across the west-central and northwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through
the week and into the upcoming weekend producing generally return
flow west of 90W through Fri. Moderate winds within 120 nm of the
Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh each night through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally stable atmospheric conditions prevail across most of the
basin due to sinking motion induced by a middle level trough
extending from the Leeward Islands to Colombia. Scattered showers
and a few small clusters of thunderstorms are seen across the
southwest Caribbean south of 13.5N and west of 75W associated with
a tropical wave moving across the basin. A narrow ridge across
the western Atlantic to the central Bahamas is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds across the basin, except fresh to strong
winds across south central portions and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft except 7 to 8 ft across south-central portions,
north of Venezuela and Colombia.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge to the west of 55W will
maintain a modest pressure gradient and moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the Caribbean basin throughout the week.
Fresh to strong winds are expected across the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night
through Fri night. Fresh winds will pulse each night through the
end of the week across the interior Gulf of Honduras. Atlantic
high pressure will strengthen north of the area over the
upcoming weekend to produce fresh to strong trades across much
of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front runs southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N49W to 26N60W, then curves northwestward to
30N69W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up
to 240 nm south of this boundary. Gentle to moderate winds are
seen near this boundary, while northerly swell is maintaining 8
to 11 ft seas north of 27N between 47W and 57W. Farther west, a
surface trough reaches northeastward from central Florida to near
31N76W. Combining with an upper-level trough in the vicinity,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up across
the NW Bahamas and eastward to 70W. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail west of 62W from the Bahamas
northward. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A broad Atlantic ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1027 mb
Azores High across 30N35W to 23N50W, then becomes a narrow ridge
passing south of the front to the central Bahamas. This feature
is supporting moderate to fresh NE trades and 7 to 9 ft seas
south of 26N between the NW African coast and 40W. To the west,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of
5 to 8 ft are found north of 8N between 40W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough along about 25N
will meander across the E waters through Thu before dissipating.
High pressure will strengthen across the region over the upcoming
weekend to produce fresh S to SW winds to the north of 28N and
west of 70W.

$$
Stripling
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