[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 061449
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022

Alex continues to lack deep convection anywhere near its core,
with the majority of the heavy showers and thunderstorms displaced
nearly 200 n mi to the northeast of the center due to the
persistently strong shear.  Observations from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 700 mb center of
the vortex is tilted some 30 n mi northeast of the low-level
center, likely as a result of the shear.  Based on a blend of
flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the
intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.  Given the
lack of central convection and continued shear, some weakening
and continued loss of tropical characteristics are likely today.
However, the cyclone will probably maintain some of its intensity
for the next day or so due to baroclinic processes.  In 36 hours or
so, the global models depict The post-tropical low merging with an
extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic, so the official
forecast shows the system as dissipated by 48 hours.

The storm continues to move rapidly toward the east-northeast, or
around 065/25 kt.  Alex should remain embedded in the southern
portion of the mid-latitude westerlies and continue this general
motion for the next day or two.  The official forecast is close
to both the simple and corrected dynamical consensus track
forecasts, TVCN and HCCA respectively, and is also similar to the
previous NHC prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on the island
of Bermuda for the next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 34.0N  63.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 35.5N  59.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/1200Z 38.3N  52.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/0000Z 41.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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