[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 05/2100 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Alex is located
near 31.5N 71.5W, or about 345 nm W of Bermuda. Alex is moving
ENE, or 60 degrees, at 24 knots. The minimum central pressure is
991 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to
65 knots. 12 ft seas extend up to 150 nm in the eastern
semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is from 32N to 37N
between 63W and 72W. A trailing rainband extends SSW producing
scattered moderate convection and tstms across the central Bahamas
and adjacent waters and portions of the NW Caribbean. The center
of the tropical storm is expected to pass near or just north of
Bermuda on Monday. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight. After that, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the system is
expected to become an extratropical low by Tuesday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 19W from the equator to 13N,
moving westward at 25 knots. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 13W and
24W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 33W from the equator to 11N,
moving westward at 25 knots. The wave is being covered by the
Saharan Air Layer, which is hindering convection at the moment.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 57W from the equator to 12N,
moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 04N to 13N between 48W and 62W.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 77W from the 01N to 13N, moving
westward at 10 knots. This wave is supporting isolated showers in
the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 15N17W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N30W then resumes W
of a tropical wave from 04N36W to 01N50W. For information about
convection, see the tropical waves section discussed above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure with a relaxed gradient is leading to favorable
conditions across the Gulf. Mainly clear skies, light to gentle
winds and slight seas dominate the basin. A small area of isolated
thunderstorms is observed off the coast of Louisiana and in the
Yucatan channel.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters through Tue, allowing moderate to fresh return flow to set
up across the western Gulf. A ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed across the NW Caribbean from 22N83W
to 16N85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
between 90 and 210 nm east of this feature. Winds are light to
gentle behind the trough with 1-3 ft seas. Southerly winds are
moderate to fresh ahead of the trough, with 3-6 ft seas.
Winds are gentle in the SW Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas. Winds are
moderate to fresh in the central and eastern basin with 4-7 ft
seas.

For the forecast, high pressure extends from the E Atlantic W-SW
to the Bahamas and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin
through mid week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across
the south-central Caribbean tonight through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Alex.

Tropical storm Alex dominates the western Atlantic. Outside of
this influence, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N33W
is the main feature in the eastern and central basin. A ridge
extends from this feature towards 25N50W. The gradient between
this feature, and lower pressure over Africa and in the vicinity
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, is generating moderate to fresh NE
winds south of the ridge. Recent scatterometer data found locally
strong NE winds along the coast of Western Sahara. Seas south of
the ridge are 7-9 ft. Winds are gentle to moderate with moderate
seas within the ridge axis and through the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Alex near 30.4N 74.0W
993 mb at 11 AM EDT moving ENE at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds
50 kt gusts 60 kt. Alex will move to 31.7N 70.8W this evening, N
of the area near 33.1N 66.4W Mon morning, 34.2N 61.7W Mon evening,
become extratropical and move to 34.6N 57.4W Tue morning, 34.9N
53.4W Tue evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near
35.0N 50.3W Wed morning. Alex will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 35.5N 47.0W early Thu. High pressure will build
westward into the Bahamas to the south of Alex through early Tue
then weaken through Wed night.

$$
Ramos
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