[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is located north of
the NW Bahamas near 28.4N 78.2W at 11 PM EDT, or about 125 nm ENE
of Fort Pierce, Florida. The low pressure center is moving NE, or
055 degrees, at 17 knots with an estimated minimum central
pressure of 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40
knots with gusts to 50 knots. A scatterometer satellite pass
captured fresh to strong winds from northern Cuba to 30N and W of
74W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over
the eastern semicircle, especially N of 25N and between 70W and
77W. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move
away from the northwestern Bahamas and move near or to the north
of Bermuda on Monday. The disturbance is expected to become a
tropical or subtropical storm on Sunday, and some strengthening
is possible. However, gradual weakening is expected early next
week.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 40W, south of 12N and moving
westward at 15 knots. A few showers are occurring near the trough
axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 73W, south of 12N and moving
westward at 15 knots. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near the border of Mauritania
and Senegal near 16N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W
to 04N31W and continues from 04N42W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed near and south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ to 02N and E of 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 11N to 03N and W of 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The weather conditions in the basin have continued to improve and are
fairly tranquil as Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves quickly
away into the western Atlantic. A much drier airmass now
encompasses the Gulf and it is suppressing the development of
convection. Light to locally moderate winds are prevalent across
the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft are found E of 90W and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is building across the Gulf
waters in the wake of this disturbance, and will dominate the
basin through mid week. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow
will set-up over the western Gulf Sun night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent low-level flow associated with the circulation of
Potential Tropical Cyclone One to the north of the Bahamas is
producing a line of showers that is affecting the Cayman Islands
and central Cuba. Eight to twelve inches of rain fell across the
western provinces of Cuba during the past few days, from Pinar
del Rio to Matanzas, with isolated parts in Pinar del Rio
receiving up to 16 inches. Lower amounts have been reported in the
central parts of the country. Strong showers and thunderstorms
have developed over NE Honduras and Nicaragua and some of the
activity has spilled into the NW Caribbean, especially within 100
nm of the coast of NE Honduras. Elsewhere, conditions are fairly
tranquil.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong
southerly winds N of 18N and between 78W and 82W associated with
the wind envelope of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in the SE
Caribbean with seas of 4-6 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure extends from the E Atlc WSW to
the Bahamas and will maintain a modest pressure gradient and
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean basin
through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

Outside of the influence of Potential Tropical Cyclone One, the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned
near the island of Madeira. A surface trough extends from 28N57W
to 35N60W and it is producing a few showers to the east of the
trough axis, mainly within 120 nm. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong winds are occurring
N of 28N and between 56W and 61W. Seas in the area are 6-8 ft.
Farther south, an upper level low is located about 300 nm to the
NE of the Leeward Islands, moving quickly to the southeast.
Divergent flow aloft results in scattered showers from 20N to 24
and between 53W and 58W. Fairly tranquil weather conditions are
present in the rest of the basin.

The pressure gradient as the result of the subtropical ridge and
lower pressures over the deep tropics is causing fresh to locally
strong trades S of 20N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles.
Easterly swell is producing seas of 6-10 ft in this region, with
the highest seas being found near 11N50W. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted S of 25N and E of 35W. The strongest winds are
occurring offshore Mauritania, especially E of 29W, and offshore
Western Sahara. Seas are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, Potential Tropical Cyclone One near
28.4N 78.2W 1000 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NE at 17 kt. Maximum
sustained winds remain 40 kt gusts 50 kt. One will continue NE and
reach near 29.7N 76.0W Sun morning as a Tropical Storm, reach
31.5N 72.3W Sun evening, then continue moving quickly NE to ENE
and pass near Bermuda Mon evening, then continue ENE and gradually
become extra-tropical Tue through Thu. High pressure will build
westward into the Bahamas to the south of One through early Tue
then weaken through Wed.

$$
Delgado
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net