[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is located over
south Florida near 26.5N, 81.4W at 11 AM EDT, or about 35 nm NE
of Naples. The low pressure center is moving NE, or 045 degrees,
at 16 knots with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1002 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45
knots, and are occurring exclusively in the SE quadrant. Fresh to
strong winds are observed in the eastern Gulf, western Atlantic
and Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection embedded in
nearly continuous rainfall has persisted over parts of south
Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba. 24 hour rainfall totals of 6-8"
have been reported across SE Florida from Homestead to Fort
Lauderdale. PTC ONE remains disorganized this morning, but is
still expected to develop into a tropical storm after emerging
over the western Atlantic tonight. The system is then expected to
accelerate to the NE, crossing 31N overnight Sunday before
transitioning into an extratropical cyclone by Tuesday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 36W, from the equator
to 11N, moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 36W and 42W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 70W, from 01N to
12N, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 13N between 69W and 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to 02N34W and
west of the tropical wave from 01S39W to 01S46W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 10W and
25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is centered over south
Florida.

N-W winds are gusting to minimal tropical storm force in parts of
the eastern Gulf and through the Florida Straits in association
with PTC ONE. Convection is limited across the basin as PTC ONE
moves over Florida. Winds diminish to gentle in the central and
western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the eastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft
in the western Gulf.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One near 26.5N 81.4W 1002 mb at 11 AM
EDT moving NE at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45
kt. One will move to 27.8N 79.4W this evening, 29.7N 76.0W Sun
morning, 31.9N 71.6W Sun evening, 33.7N 66.8W Mon morning, 35.0N
61.8W Mon evening, and become extratropical and move to 35.7N
56.9W Tue morning. One will change little in intensity as it moves
to near 39.0N 48.0W early Wed. Weak high pressure will dominate
the Gulf through mid week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is centered over south
Florida.

A trailing rainband from PTC ONE is observed across the NW
Caribbean with numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
within 30 nm of a line from 22N81W to 19N85W. Fresh to strong S-W
winds south of Cuba will decrease through the day as 6-8 ft seas
gradually abate. Winds are gentle to moderate through the
remainder of the NW Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh winds are likely offshore NW Venezuela with mainly gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-5 ft in the
central and eastern Caribbean.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is now crossing South Florida and
will continue to move away from the Caribbean Sea the remainder of
the weekend. At 11 am, it is near 26.5N 81.4W moving NE at 16 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Strong SW winds and
high seas will continue across the NW Caribbean and south of Cuba
through this afternoon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
across the Caribbean E of 78W Sun through late Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is centered over south
Florida.

West of 75W, PTC ONE is generating strong to near gale force
winds. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure
centered near 30N30W to 22N56W to near 29N71W. Associated gentle
to moderate anticyclonic wind flow dominates the western Atlantic
east of 75W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting
moderate to fresh strong NE-E winds south of 25N in the central
Atlantic, and fresh to strong NE winds in the far eastern
Atlantic.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One near 26.5N 81.4W 1002
mb at 11 AM EDT moving NE at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35
kt gusts 45 kt. One will move to 27.8N 79.4W this evening, 29.7N
76.0W Sun morning, 31.9N 71.6W Sun evening, 33.7N 66.8W Mon
morning, 35.0N 61.8W Mon evening, and become extratropical and
move to 35.7N 56.9W Tue morning. One will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 39.0N 48.0W early Wed. High pressure
will build westward into the Bahamas Tue then weaken through Wed.

$$
Flynn
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