[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE is near located near
25.6N 83.1W at 5 AM EDT, or about 56 nm/100 km N of the Dry
Tortugas, and about 87 nm/165 km SW of Fort Myers in Florida. The
low pressure center is moving NE, or 045 degrees, at 16 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots, and are
occurring exclusively across the southeast semicircle. Strong
upper level west-southwesterly wind shear has caused convection
near this center to deteriorate overnight. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection currently extends mostly
in a 90-120 nm wide linear band from southwest Florida along 27N
across western Cuba then SSW to the interior Gulf of Honduras.
Other scatters clusters of moderate to strong convection are
moving NNE across the coastal waters of southeast Florida and the
northern Bahamas from 23.5N to 28N to the W of 74.5W. Overnight
satellite derived scatterometer wind data showed an elongated
trough of low pressure across the southeast Gulf of Mexico,
extending NNE to SSW, while the strongest winds are well removed
to the east and southeast of the trough and assumed surface
center. The Potential Tropical Cyclone will continue to move
northeastward today and across southern Florida, and then
reorganize along the E coast of Florida or the nearby Atlc waters
tonight, and become a Tropical Storm. Heavy rainfall will affect
the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, South Florida, and
Central Florida today. The system is expected to reach near 28.6N
78.6W tonight as a Tropical Storm, then begin to interact with an
upper level trough and expand its wind field, as it accelerates
off to the NE, moving north of 31N Sun night. Please, read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 34W, from 11N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 03.5N to 08N between 29W and
39W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 68W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Associated scattered
convection is occurring solely across South America south of 09N.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 06N31W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is
from 02N to 10N between 14W and 21W, while scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 03N to 05.5N between 07W and
13W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of
Mexico.

S to SW Winds to Tropical Storm strength extend across the
Straits of Florida east of 81.5W across western Cuba and into the
Caribbean coastal waters of Cuba north of the Isle of Youth.
Elsewhere cyclonic winds of 20-30 kt are found across much of the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico east of 86W and south of 28N. Seas
across this area are to 10 ft. A large middle level to upper
level trough, that stretches from the Florida Panhandle to the far
southwestern Gulf is keeping the remainder of the basin dry, and
providing strong westerly wind shear across Potential Tropical
Cyclone. Moderate to fresh NE to E wind, and 3 to 5 foot seas, are
in the central and northeastern Gulf. Light N breezes, and 2 to 4
foot seas, are in the western Gulf.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move NE and reach the SW
coast of Florida shortly after sunrise, then reach near 27.1N
80.9W Sat afternoon, then continue NE and exit into the Atlc
waters Sat evening, reach Tropical Storm strength and accelerate
NE through Mon. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf through
mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Strong southerly winds, and local areas reaching minimal
tropical storm force, are occurring in the far northwestern
Caribbean Sea from 21N northward, mostly across the coastal waters
of western Cuba north of the Isle of Youth. Seas are reaching as
high as 10 feet in this area. Fresh SE to S winds are elsewhere
from 16N northward between Jamaica and 83W. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds, and 3 to 5 foot seas cover much of the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The exception is: light breezes and slight seas in
the far SW Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall has been moving across
much of western portions of central Cuba, adding to large
accumulations in much of western and central Cuba and the Isle of
Youth during the past 24 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will continue NE and move across
southern Florida, reaching near 27.1N 80.9W this afternoon then
exit into the Atlc and reach near 28.6N 78.6Ww Sat night as a
Tropical Storm, then accelerate NE and more north of 31N Sun
night. Strong SW winds and high seas will continue across the NW
Caribbean and south of west and central Cuba through early Sat
afternoon. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the
Caribbean E of 78W Sun through late Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, that is in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center is
near 34N23W to 26N50W to near 23.5N66W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
northward. To the NW of the ridge, a 1010 mb low pressure center
is near 31N65W, moving ESE. An upper level trough extends from an
upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N63W, to
25N58W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is supported
by the upper trough, and covers the area from 23N to 29N between
55W and 62W.

Mostly gentle to moderate winds, and 3 to 5 foot seas, are from
20N northward. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds, and 5 to 8 foot
seas, are from 20N southward.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will continue NE and move across
southern Florida, reaching near 27.1N 80.9W this afternoon, then
continue NE and become a Tropical Storm near 25.8N 82.0W this
evening, then accelerate NE and reach 30.7N 74.6W Sun afternoon,
then move N of 31N Sun night. High pressure will build westward
into the Bahamas Tue then weaken through Wed.

$$

Stripling
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