[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 23.0N 85.8W at
03/2100 UTC, or 300 nm SW of Ft. Myers Florida moving NE at 6
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. An increase
in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight, across the southern and central portions
of the Florida Peninsula on Sat, and then over the southwestern
Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Sat through Sun.
The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce heavy
rains across western Cuba through today. Heavy rain will also
affect Central Florida, South Florida and the Florida Keys
through Sat, and affect northwestern Bahamas tonight through Sat.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection, likely enhanced by the nearby ITCZ,
is from 03N to 07N between 31W and 34W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 13N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is mainly inland over north-central Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Guinea and
Sierra-Leone near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from
05N21W to 05N28W then resumes from 06N33W to the coast of French
Guiana near 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the monsoon trough is from 02N to 06N east of 17W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 90 nm of the African coast
from 05N to 08N between 12W and 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, currently located over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm strength winds cover the far southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on the east side of Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The
southerly flow over Cuba is fetch-limited, but seas are still
building as high as 11 ft currently over the southeast Gulf.
Large clusters of thunderstorms are active over the far
southeastern Gulf as well, impacting northwest Cuba, the Florida
Keys, and much of South Florida. A large mid/upper trough
reaching from the Florida Panhandle to the far southwest Gulf is
keeping the remainder of the basin dry, and providing decent
westerly shear over the potential tropical cyclone. Moderate to
fresh NE to E wind and 3 to 5 ft seas are over the central and
northeast Gulf. Light N breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are over the
western Gulf.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move
east of the basin overnight, allowing winds and seas to diminish
over the southeast Gulf through Sat. Quiescent conditions will
follow across the Gulf into early next week as high pressure
builds across the central Gulf. The high pressure will shift east
of the basin Mon and Tue, allowing moderate to fresh SE return
flow over the northwest Gulf into mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, located of the Yucatan
Channel.

Strong southerly winds, along with local areas reaching minimal
tropical storm, are occurring over the far northwest Caribbean
north of 20N to include along the southern coast of western Cuba.
Seas are reaching as high as 9 ft in this area as well. Fresh SE
to S winds are noted elsewhere north of 15N west of Jamaica to
85W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas persist
elsewhere except for light breezes and slight seas over the far
southwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
evident near the Isle of Youth. Heavy rainfall persist over much
of western Cuba, adding to large accumulations over much of
western and central Cuba and the Isle of Youth over the past 24
hours.

For the forecast, on the forecast track, the Potential Tropical
Cyclone One should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, and across the southern and central portions of the
Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Strong southerly winds and high
seas will continue across the NW Caribbean and south of west and
central Cuba through early Sat afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1010 mb low pressure is centered north of the area near 32N67W.
This is north of where an upper is low is centered near 28N64W. A
few thunderstorms associated with the upper low are active from
28N to 30N between 60W and 65W. Farther east, a 1025 mb high
pressure is centered southwest of the Azores near 31N30W. This
pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5
ft seas north of 20N, and moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 5
to 7 ft seas south of 20N.

For the forecast, on the forecast track, Potential Tropical
Cyclone One should move across the southern and central portions
of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the
southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late
Saturday through Sunday. High pressure will build westward into
the Bahamas Tue.

$$
Christensen
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