[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 020533
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is
likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it
moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Interests
in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or
warnings could be required for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern
Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the
northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds appear too strong for significant
development of this system while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10
mph over the southwestern Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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