[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was added to the analysis along the coast of
Senegal at 17W. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is evident along the wave axis from 12N to
14N.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W, south of 21N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this
wave as it remains embedded within in a dry and dusty Saharan
airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of
22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
noted from 11N to 13N and between 60W and 63W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south
of 22N, extending across Hispaniola and into NE Colombia. The
wave is moving W at 20 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms
are noted along this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 09N35W to
03N51W. No deep convection is evident due to the dry and dusty
Saharan airmass encompassing the region.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergent flow aloft associated with an upper low centered over
the west- central Gulf near 23N94W is supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms across most of the basin this morning. Weak high
pressure extends across the northern Gulf, supporting light
breezes and slight seas over the northeast and north-central Gulf.
Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate
moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the upper-level low will move westward across
the western Gulf today, and will continue to enhance scattered
showers and thunderstorms across much of the basin. The weak
surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will continue
to support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most
of the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh E winds will
pulse during the evening hours through the early part of the week
west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE
winds across the Windward Passage, and over the central Caribbean
between Colombia and Hispaniola. The pass also showed winds are
approaching near-gale force off Colombia. Concurrent altimeter
passes indicated seas were reaching as high as 9 ft south of the
Cabo Beata area of Hispaniola. Seas are likely reaching as high as
11 ft in area of near-gale force winds off Colombia. Mostly
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms are active across the Windward
Islands ahead of an approaching tropical wave. An upper low
centered over Grand Cayman is supporting a small cluster of
showers and thunderstorms near 15N76W.

For the forecast, a tropical wave between Haiti and northeast
Colombia will move into the western Caribbean through Mon. Fresh
to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will expand in
areal coverage with building seas through Mon following the
tropical wave, then diminish by mid-week. Meanwhile, the eastern
Caribbean will experience fresh trades, while the northwest
Caribbean can expect mainly moderate E winds through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge extends north of 27N, anchored by 1025 mb high pressure
centered near 30N54W. The northern extent of a tropical wave
reaches from south of 22N through Haiti, with another wave
extending south of 22N along 57W. The gradient between these
features is supporting fresh to strong winds funneling off the
northern coast of Hispaniola. Seas are likely up to 7 ft in this
area, and in the northern approaches to the Windward Passage.
Moderate to fresh winds are evident elsewhere south of 25N west of
35W, with 4 to 6 ft in open waters, except for near 7 ft off the
Leeward Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
noted north of 25N and west of 35W. East of 35W, fresh to strong
NE winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 15N, with gentle
to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft south of 15N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 30N will change
little through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the
late afternoons and during the overnight hours through Mon night.
Fresh trades will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through Mon.

$$
Christensen
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