[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302254
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from
03N to 20N. No deep convection is noted as the wave continues to
be embedded within in a dry and dusty Saharan air mass. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm west of the
wave from 05N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from
05N to 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection trails trails this wave within 30 nm of a line
from 14N55W to 12N50W to 11N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm of 11N46W. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are ahead of the wave to 61W from 09N to 14N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W south
of 22N, moving westward at about 20 kt. A batch of scattered
showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave from 14N to 18N.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms trail the wave north of 15N.
This activity is moving west-northwest. It is affecting the
coastal waters of Puerto Rico and also the Mona Passage area.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W southwestward to 13N26W to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N32W to 07N40W. No deep convection is noted due to the
very dry surrounding environment mainly due to the Saharan
Air Layer.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern Gulf, with
lower pressure over southern Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed
from 23N98W to inland Mexico at 19N94W. This pattern is
generating moderate east to southeast winds across the majority
of the basin. An upper level-low over the south-central Gulf is
resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the
basin southeast of a line from 30N87W to 27N92W to just inland
Mexico at 24N98W. Seas are generally 3-5 ft outside of coastal
waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low moving
westward across the southern Gulf will continue to enhance
scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sun. Otherwise, weak
surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf Coast will
support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of
the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh east winds will
pulse during the evening hours Sun and Mon evenings to the NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between the subtropical high and lower pressure in
the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly trade winds
across the basin. In the eastern Caribbean winds are fresh with
4-6 ft seas. In the central Caribbean winds are strong with
mainly 6-8 ft seas and an area of 8-10 ft seas south of 14N,
between 74W and 78W. In the northwestern Caribbean, winds are
moderate along with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
central Caribbean through Sun. The strong winds will expand in
areal coverage Sun night through Mon following a tropical wave
moving across the basin. Seas will build across the central
Caribbean during that time. Winds and seas will diminish by mid-
week. Meanwhile, the eastern Caribbean will experience fresh
trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly moderate
east winds into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A subtropical high pressure ridge extends along 30N in the
western Atlantic. It extends east-northeastward to a 1026 mb
high center located just north of the area near 33N37W. The
associated gradient is maintaining generally gentle winds near
and within the ridge. East winds increase to moderate speeds
south of 27N. Seas are 3-4 ft north of 27N and 4-6 ft south of
27N. Moderate to fresh northeast winds dominate the eastern
Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
ridge will change little through Tue, then shift slightly south
Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola
and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late
afternoons and during the overnight hours through Mon night.
Fresh trade winds will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through
Sun night, before diminishing to moderate early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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