[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300951
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south
of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W, south of
22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W, south
of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. A few showers are evident within 60 nm
of the axis north of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N17W to 10N30W. The ITCZ continues from 10N30W
to 04N42W. A few showers are evident from 01N to 03N between 40W
and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A scatterometer satellite pass from around 03 UTC showed fresh to
strong winds over the Bay of Campeche, on the northern end of a
trough moving across the southwest Gulf. Another trough was
analyzed from the northeast point of the Yucatan Peninsula into
the south-central Gulf. The scatterometer pass also captured fresh
to strong near the northern end of this trough, likely also
associated with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern Gulf. This convection was due to divergent flow aloft on
the eastern edge of an upper low centered off the central coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. The gradient between these surface troughs
and weak ridging over the northern Gulf coast was supporting
moderate to fresh E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the Gulf south
of 26N. Moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft are noted over the
northwest Gulf, and light breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas are evident
over the northeast Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridging extending across the
northern Gulf will continue to support gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next
week. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh NE
to E winds will pulse during the evening hours due to a trough
that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings and moves
westward overnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and a weak surface trough in the Yucatan Channel
allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
far northwest Caribbean, north of 20N and west of 80W. A few
showers are also noted in the eastern Caribbean Sea, associated
with the tropical wave described in the Tropical Waves section.
Elsewhere, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil. The tight
pressure gradient associated with the subtropical ridge south of
Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America is
resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds found offshore NW
Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh
trades and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the north-central and
eastern Caribbean. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected across the area through Sun, except for pulsing
fresh to strong winds mainly during the evenings over the waters
off Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela and just south of
Hispaniola. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the
central Caribbean Sun night through early next week following a
tropical wave moving across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge extends north of 27N between Bermuda and the northeast
coast of Florida. The northern extent of a tropical wave reaches
from south of 22N through the Anegada Passage, with an
accompanying trough reaching north of the tropical wave to 29N57W.
Ridging extends from the Azores to near 30N60W. A scatterometer
satellite pass from 0230 UTC showed fresh to strong winds
funneling off the northern coast of Hispaniola, between the
tropical wave/trough and the ridge to the north. Seas are likely
up to 7 ft in this area, and in the northern approaches to the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are evident elsewhere
south of 25N west of 35W, with 4 to 6 ft in open waters, except
for near 7 ft off the Leeward Islands. Gentle to moderate winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of 25N and west of 35W. East of
35W, fresh to strong NE winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north
of 15N, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft south of 15N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 30N will change
little through Mon, then shift slightly south Mon night through
Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola
and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late
afternoons and during the overnight hours through early next week.

$$
Christensen
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