[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290508
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced along 17W, south of 20N based
on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic data.
The wave is moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated
with this feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan
airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 01N
to 09N and between 37W and 49W. The northern portion is surrounded
by a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W,
south of 22N and moving W near 15 kt. A few showers are noted
east of the northern portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N30W to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from
05N44W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
03N to 08N and between 27W and 31W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon reaches the SW
Caribbean through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia.
A few showers are present near the trough axis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak upper level low and abundant tropical moisture are
producing isolated showers over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also present west of Pinar
del Rio, Cuba, in the SE Gulf. Elsewhere, the weather conditions
are fairly tranquil under a weak high pressure regime. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds are found in the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of
Campeche, along with seas of 3-5 ft. The highest seas are
occurring in the Florida Straits. In the rest of the Gulf, gentle
to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are
prevalent.

For the forecast, broad surface high pressure ridging will support
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf
through early next week. The exception will be the Bay of
Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse over the
next several nights due to the typical diurnal trough that
develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low in the central Bahamas and plenty of moisture
in the NW Caribbean allows for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to affect the waters north of a line from Jamaica to
the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula, including the Windward
Passage. A couple of showers are also noted north of the ABC
islands near 14N68W. The rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds prevail across the basin, except for light to gentle
winds between Jamaica and NE Honduras. Seas of 3-6 ft are
prevalent across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected across the area through late Sun, except for pulsing
fresh winds every evening over the waters off Colombia. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will build over the south-central Caribbean
early next week following a tropical wave moving across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge near 29N67W dominates the western tropical
Atlantic (W of 55W), sustaining moderate to fresh easterly winds S
of 25N and seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere W of 55W, light to locally
moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-4 ft prevail. An upper
level low in the central Bahamas is generating a few shallow
showers that are affecting the Bahamian waters and the Florida
Straits.

The central and eastern Atlantic remain under the influence of a
1029 mb high pressure system centered near the Azores. Recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally
fresh winds prevail W of 30W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. A surface
trough is found along 53W, extending from 18N to 28N, and a few
shallow showers are present near the trough axis. The rest of the
basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. In the NE
tropical Atlantic, especially N of 20N and E of 30W, satellite-
derived wind data show fresh to strong N-NE winds, affecting the
waters off Western Saharan and the Canary Islands. Seas in this
area are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of
3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 30N will
change little through Mon night, then shift slightly south Tue
and Tue night as a cold front approaches the southeastern U.S.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and
during the overnight hours into early next week.

$$
Delgado
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