[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 36W and S of 21N, moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern
portion of the wave axis, from 04N to 08N between 34W and 39W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 52W and S of 21N, moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. A surface trough is N of the wave and extends
from 27N50W to 22N51W. No significant convection is noted at this
time, likely due to the wave being embedded in a Saharan dust
airmass.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W then continues to 07N24W to 10N36W to 07N41W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 07N49W, then resumes W of a
tropical wave near 09N53W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W.
Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section
above, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of
the ITCZ. Scattered showers are elsewhere near both the Monsoon
Trough and ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough extends to the
border of Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered
showers are noted in the SW Caribbean.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf
waters. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the SW Gulf
from 20N to 23N between 94W and 96W, associated with diffluence
aloft. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate
SE winds prevail based on the recent scatterometer pass, with
seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the broad surface high pressure ridging will
continue over the area allowing for gentle to moderate winds and
gentle seas to prevail through the forecast period. The exception
will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds
will pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical
diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves
westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough located west of the Lesser Antilles extends from
15N63W to 11N64W. This trough is producing scattered showers and
tstorms south of 14N between 62W and 67W. Another surface trough
is noted west of Jamaica, producing a few showers and tstorms in
the Cayman Basin. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted in
the NW Caribbean, with seas of 3-5 ft. The southwest, central, and
eastern Caribbean are dominated by gentle to moderate trades and
5-7 ft seas. The Saharan Air Layer tracking product from CIMSS
and the GOES-16 RGB dust imagery continues to depict the presence
of African dust across much of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected across the area through the rest of the week,
except for pulsing fresh winds every evening over the waters N of
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will develop across the central
Caribbean this weekend. A surface trough in the eastern Caribbean
near 64W south 16N is accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The trough will move westward across the rest of
basin through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores High
centered north of the area near 36N32W. Strong to near gale force
NE winds are noted across the E Atlantic waters between the Canary
Islands and near the coasts of Western Sahara and Mauritania,
with seas of 7-9 ft. The remainder of the discussion waters are
experiencing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas are 4-6
ft west of 55W and 4-7 ft elsewhere in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 30N
will change little through Mon night. Fresh winds will pulse N of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the
late afternoons and during the overnight hours into early next
week.

$$
Colon-Burgos/Mahoney
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