[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W and S of
24N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry and
dusty Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of
significant convection with this feature at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W and S of
18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is also embedded in the
dry and dusty Saharan airmass previously mentioned inhibiting
significant convection.

A tropical wave has its axis along 89W and S of 20N, moving W
near 10-15 kt. Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft
support scattered moderate convection S of 20N and W of 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to
07N58W. Scattered showers are noted S of the boundaries mainly
between 30W-48W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW
Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to
northern Colombia. A few showers are present near this feature.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge near Bermuda extends southwestward into the
Gulf waters, maintaining light to moderate anticyclonic winds.
However, locally fresh winds are likely across the Florida Straits
and eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the
Gulf, except for 3-4 ft in the SE Gulf, including the Florida
Straits, and the eastern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail
through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of
Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each
night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough
that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil conditions prevail across the basin due to the
dry and dusty Saharan airmass encompassing the area. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds are noted over the eastern half of the
basin, while gentle to moderate winds prevail across the western
half. The strongest winds occurring in the waters offshore
southern Hispaniola and NW Colombia, as shown in a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 5-7 ft in the described
waters. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate
seas are expected across the area through the week, briefly
increasing to fresh to strong across the south central Caribbean
and N of Honduras tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will
develop across the central Caribbean by this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The western tropical Atlantic enjoys tranquil weather conditions
as dry and dusty Saharan air dominates the region. The pressure
gradient between a 1024 mb subtropical high E of Bermuda and
lower pressures in the Caribbean result in fresh to locally
strong easterly winds S of 25N and W of 55W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that the strongest winds are occurring
offshore Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage.
Elsewhere W of 55W, light to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail.
Seas of 4-6 ft are noted W of 55W.

Farther east, a surface trough extends along 43W from 22N to 26N.
The remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic is
dominated by the Azores high and the previously-mentioned Saharan
airmass, maintaining tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present from
12N to 30N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. In the NE
Atlantic, especially N of 27N and E of 20W, fresh to near gale-
force N-NE winds are affecting the waters off Morocco and the
passages in the Canary Islands, along with seas of 6-9 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridge along 28N will
change little through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward
Passage today, then again this weekend.

$$
ERA
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