[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 05N to 15N between 28W and 37W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 69W southward of 20N,
moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen over land across western Venezuela and interior
Colombia, and also ahead of the wave across western Cuba and the
Bahamas.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 88W from 20N
southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific, and
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring behind the wave and over land across
Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Mauritania coast
near 18N16W across the southern Cabo Verde Islands to 10N41W to
10N45W, where it transitions to ITCZ, and continues to 11N54W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the next
tropical wave along the west African coast is noted from 06.5N to
13N between 16W and 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 38W and 47W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough is across the
southwest Caribbean along 10N, and is focusing scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms south of the trough and over Panama,
eastern Costa Rica and into the eastern Pacific.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward across the basin this evening from
a 1020 mb high over the Georgia-Florida border to southeast Texas.
Light to gentle easterly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are present
across the western Gulf. gentle to moderate ESE to E winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft exist across the eastern Gulf. Scattered small
cells of showers and thunderstorms dot the southeast Gulf offshore
of western Florida, and are offshore of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. Bands of showers and thunderstorms are across
the southwest Gulf offshore of Mexico.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will allow for gentle to
moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail through the forecast
period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to
strong northeast to east winds will pulse each night over the next
few days due to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the
Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward across the Bay of Campeche.
Winds and seas will remain highest across southeast portions and
the Straits of Florida through the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1026 mb Bermuda/Azores High continues to channel easterly
trades across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh winds and seas
at 4 to 7 ft are seen across the central and northeastern basin.
Gentle monsoonal winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident for the
waters near Panama and the southeast Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of
the basin. An upper level low pressure system across the northwest
Caribbean near 19N81W is supporting active convection from the
Caribbean coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua northeastward to
eastern Cuba. A band of converging winds extends from Hispaniola
southeastward to the central Lesser Antilles, where scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen. Saharan Air is to the
east and northeast of this band and will enter the Caribbean
tonight and Tue.

For the forecast, the Bermuda ridge will remain in place to
support a relatively tight pressure gradient in the central
Caribbean, and produce pulsing fresh to strong east winds through
Tue, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate
seas are expected elsewhere through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahamas,
continues to interact with an upper-level trough extending nearly
N to S along 78W and offshore of Florida. This is producing
scattered moderate convection across much of the Bahamas, Cuba and
Hispaniola. Another upper-level low near 31N28W and associated
trough are producing scattered moderate convection west of the
Canary Islands, and northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands north of
21N between 29W and 38W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

The Bermuda/Azores High maintaining a broad ridge across the
Atlantic just to the north of 31N, and is producing light to
gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft seas north of 27N between 36W and the
Georgia/northern Florida coast. Further south, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted
from 11N to 27N between 40W and the Bahamas/Less Antilles. A very
large area of Saharan Air dominates this area between 35W and 72W.
Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE trades and 4
to 6 ft seas are evident north of 23N between the northwest
African coast and 36W/40W. Light to gentle winds with locally
moderate monsoonal winds, and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge along 32N will
shift slightly south on Wed, and change little through Sat night.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the late afternoons and at
night north of Hispaniola, and in the approaches to the Windward
Passage through the period. Similar winds are expected in the Mona
Passage tonight and Tue night. A surface trough that extends from
28N75W to 24N76W and to eastern Cuba will move across the rest of
the Bahamas tonight and reach South Florida on Tue. A mid-level
disturbance will accompany the trough and produce increasing winds
and seas and active weather.

$$
Stripling
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