[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jul 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 20W, moving
westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 13N to 18N between 17W and 22W, and from 03N to
14N between 21W and 32W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 19N with axis near 47W,
moving westward at 5-10 knots. There is no convection associated
with this wave as it continues to be embedded in the dry
environment of the Saharan Air Layer.

A tropical wave extends S of 19N with axis near 80W, moving
westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are
ahead of the wave and across the Nicaragua and Honduras offshore
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes extends from 16N16W to 12N30W to 06N44W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave east
of the Cape Verde Islands, scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 09N between 34W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic Bermuda-Azores High continues to extend a ridge SW
across Florida into the western Gulf, which is providing light to
gentle variable winds mainly E of 90W with seas to 2 ft. With
lower pressure along Mexico, a tighter pressure gradient support
gentle to moderate return flow and seas to 3 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, model guidance indicate the aforementioned
pattern and conditions will continue through mid-week, except for
the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters where a thermal trough will
induce fresh NE to E winds during the late afternoon and night
hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with lower
pressure in the region between Colombia and Panama continue to
support fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft in the south-central
and portions of the SW Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trade
winds elsewhere. A tropical wave moving across the western
Caribbean, interacting with the monsoon trough, supports scattered
heavy showers and tstms in the offshore waters of Nicaragua and
Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area extending to the
northern Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong winds
and moderate seas in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean
through tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds are also likely across
the Windward Passage during this period and through early next
week. On Sun, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and
remain in this speed through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High continue
to be the dominant feature in the subtropical Atlantic waters.
This is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 26N in
the SW N Atlantic waters and across the central Atlantic. Seas
are moderate in the central and SW basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue
to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through mid-week,
leading to fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola and
the approaches to the Windward Passage during the night hours. A
surface trough is forecast to move westward across the region
today, likely reaching the central Bahamas on Mon. This system
could bring some increase in winds and seas.

$$
Ramos
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