[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands:

The strong surface pressure gradient, that exists between the
Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure in N Africa, continues to
support strong to near-gale force NNE winds with frequent gusts
to gale force near the Canary Islands. The seas are rough,
ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet. The general scenario consists of
NE fresh-to-strong winds from 25N northward from 25W eastward.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward
from 30W eastward. These conditions will persist through tonight
or early on Saturday. Please, read the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 21N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 05N
to 20N from 22W eastward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360
nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 12N to 19N between 81W and 86W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. This
tropical wave is moving through the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond El
Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either
side of the tropical wave in Central America and in the coastal
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The
Gambia near 13N37W, to 12N30W 10N37W 07N45W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 06N to 13N between 22W and
30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300
nm to the south of the remainder of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, through central Florida, to 21N97W
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from
20N northward from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong covers much of the area, on either
side of the upper level trough.

A surface ridge passes from the NW Bahamas to the north central
and NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the
area near 19N96W at the coast of Mexico.

Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to
3 feet, are from 90W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea
heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 90W westward.

The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to
locally fresh SE to S winds in the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate E to SE winds east of 90W. Fresh NE to E
winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near
and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is surrounded by
comparatively drier air in subsidence, covers much of the
eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Bermuda-
Azores High and lower pressure in Panama and Colombia, South
America, continues to support fresh to locally strong trade
winds and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the
south central and the SW Caribbean Sea from 11N northward.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds continue elsewhere, with
sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond northern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area, and lower
pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, will continue to support fresh
to strong winds in the south central basin into the weekend,
then mainly fresh winds will prevail early next week. Moderate
to fresh winds and slight seas are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras during much of the forecast period, while moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas are forecast just E of the Lesser
Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information about
the near-gale to gale force winds that are impacting the waters
that are near the Canary Islands.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation
center, through central Florida, to 21N97W in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow in the
Atlantic Ocean, and in the southern half of Florida.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A
surface ridge is along a 1026 mb high pressure center that is
near 33N60W, beyond the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE winds,
and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet in NE swell,
are from 20N northward from 40W eastward. Gentle to moderate E
winds are from 20N northward from 40W westward. Locally fresh
winds are from 20N to 27N between 50W and 65W. Fresh to strong
winds are near the northern coast of Hispaniola. The sea heights
range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the area of moderate to fresh or
faster wind speeds. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
elsewhere. The trade winds are gentle to moderate from 20N
southward. The exception is moderate to fresh winds from the
monsoon trough southward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7
feet.

The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic
Ocean forecast waters through the forecast period. The pressure
gradient between this high pressure system and tropical waves
moving through the Caribbean Sea will continue to support
pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just north of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including in the approaches to the
Windward Passage, nightly through Sun. A surface trough is
forecast to move westward across the forecast region beginning
on Sat, likely reaching the central Bahamas on Mon. This system
could bring some increase in winds and seas.

$$
mt
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