[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1910 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands: The strong pressure
gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure across
N Africa continues to support strong to near-gale force NNE winds
with frequent gusts to gale force near the Canary Islands. Seas
are rough, ranging from 8 to 9 ft. These conditions will persist
through tonight or early Sat. Please read the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just offshore Africa along
19W, from 21N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection near
the tropical wave is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is
associated with the tropical wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is just west of Jamaica along 79W, from
19N southward to across eastern Panama and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean, moving W at around 20 kt. The tropical wave
passage was captured on the 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding in
Kingston, Jamaica. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from the coast of Panama north to 13N between the coast of
Colombia and 79W.

A tropical wave is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula along 90W,
from 19N southward to across Guatemala, moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
This tropical wave was evidenced by the 1200 UTC Upper Air
Sounding from Belize City. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the W Caribbean, from 10N to 18N west of 79W, including inland
over Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Additional scattered
moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras, as well as over the Yucatan Peninsula and coastal
regions of Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Africa to
the coast near the border of The Gambia and Senegal near 13.5N17W
to 1008 mb low pressure near 12N19W to 10N35W to 06N44W. The ITCZ
is from 06N46W to the coast of northern South America near the
border of French Guiana and Suriname near 06N54W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection associated with the monsoon
trough is from 04N to 16N east of 24W, and from 03N to 13N
between 24W and 40W. No convection is associated with the ITCZ at
this time over water, however activity is noted near the axis over
French Guiana and Suriname.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda-Azores High continues to extend a ridge SW across
Florida and the Gulf, providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 3
ft seas east of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas west of 90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
off the coast of SW Florida, in the central Gulf from 23N to 27N
between 86W and 90W, and near coastal sections from the western
Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extending westward across
Florida into the Gulf region will support moderate to locally
fresh SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle
to moderate E to SE winds east of 90W. Otherwise, fresh NE to E
winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and
to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area combined with
lower pressure in the region between Colombia and Panama continue
to support fresh to locally strong trades and 5 to 7 ft seas in
the south-central and SW Caribbean north of 11N. Moderate to
locally fresh trades continue elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft seas.
Please see the tropical waves section for a description of
convection in the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the
area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into
the weekend, then mainly fresh winds will prevail early next week.
Moderate to fresh winds and slight seas are expected in the Gulf
of Honduras much of the forecast period while moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas are forecast just east of the Lesser
Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
near-gale to gale force winds and rough seas impacting the waters
near the Canary Islands.

Scattered moderate convection supported by upper level divergence
is near the Turks and Caicos Islands, from the northern coast of
Hispaniola to 23N between 68W and 72W. Elsewhere, surface ridging
associated with the Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. North of 20N and east of 40W, moderate to
fresh NE winds were detected by earlier scatterometer data. Seas
in this area are 7 to 9 ft as observed by satellite altimeter, in
NE swell. North of 20N and west of 40W, E winds are gentle to
moderate, except locally fresh from 20N to 27N between 50W and
65W, and fresh to strong near the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Seas of 5 to 7 ft are found in the area of moderate to fresh or
higher winds, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. South of 20N across
the basin, trades are gentle to moderate, except moderate to fresh
south of the monsoon trough, with seas are 4 to locally 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the
forecast period. The pressure gradient between this high pressure
system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will
continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds
just north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through the weekend.
A surface trough is forecast to move westward across the forecast
region beginning on Sat, likely reaching the central Bahamas on
Mon. This system could bring some increase in winds and seas.

$$
Lewitsky
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