[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The Eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands:

ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C data from earlier today were indicating
near-gale to gale force NNE winds between the Canary Islands.
Surface observations on the coasts of the islands also were
depicting strong to near-gale force NNE winds with higher gusts.
The seas were rough in the areas of the comparatively fastest
wind speeds. These conditions are expected to persist through
tomorrow.
Please, read the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W, from 18N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Any nearby
precipitation is related to the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. The precipitation that is close to
Hispaniola is in the area of broad upper level cyclonic wind
flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 19N southward,
moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: The precipitation
that is close to the tropical wave is in the area of broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The
Gambia near 13N37W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is
near 12N31W, to 07N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 540 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough, and within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level cyclonic circulation center that was in the east
central Gulf 24 hours ago, now is just off the coast of the
north central Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and surrounding
inland areas including Florida and parts of Central America from
14N northward from the Bahamas westward. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal plains
and the coastal waters of the western Yucatan Peninsula.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from central Florida, into the central
sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area
near 20N96W at the coast of Mexico.

Light to gentle return flow, and wave heights that range from 1
foot to 3 feet, are in most of the area. The exception is gentle
to moderate winds, and wave heights that range from 3 feet to 4
feet, from 93W westward.

The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the western
periphery of the ridge and lower pressures in northern Mexico
will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds east of
90W. Otherwise, fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into
the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
the Caribbean Sea, and surrounding inland areas including
Florida and parts of Central America from 14N northward from the
Bahamas westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 73W westward.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Bermuda-
Azores High and lower pressure in South America, continues to
induce fresh to locally strong trade winds in the central
Caribbean Sea, and moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere. The wave
heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the central Caribbean
Sea, and locally to 8 feet offshore Colombia. The wave heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. An exception is wave
heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean
Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond northern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 73W and
82W.

The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area, and lower
pressure in the region between Colombia and Panama, will
continue to support fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in
the south central Caribbean Sea into the early next week.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate seas are forecast across the remainder basin
through the forecast period, except for fresh to strong winds in
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Sat night and Mon
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information about
the near-gale to gale force winds that are impacting the waters
that are near the Canary Islands.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N
northward from 60W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 29N71W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is to the south of the line that runs from the NW
Bahamas to 22N65W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere in the area of
the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A
surface ridge is along a 1026 mb high pressure center that is
near 33N48W, to 31N63W 28N74W, beyond central Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are from 21N northward
between 20W and 30W. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge.
Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere in the
Atlantic Ocean. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in
much of the area. The exception is for wave heights that range
from 3 feet to 5 feet from 25N northward from 65W westward.

The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic
Ocean forecast waters through the start of next week. The
pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving
through the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh
to locally strong easterly winds just north of Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage,
nightly through the weekend.

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net