[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 20N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 29W and 39W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is now just E of the Lesser
Antilles, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands and nearby
islands.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 20N southward,
moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant
deep convective precipitation is associated just with this
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from Senegal to 12N28W to 07N45W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N49W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough from
39N to 45W, E of 29W, as well as areas S of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak upper level low is noted on satellite imagery near 25N87W.
No significant convection is associated with it. Closer to the
surface, high pressure centered ENE of the basin dominates.

Mainly moderate SE to S winds dominate the western third of the
Gulf of Mexico, with mainly gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except for locally 4 ft in the western Gulf
and Florida Straits.

The pressure gradient between the western periphery of the
Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico will
support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western
half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the eastern
half of the basin. Mainly fresh NE to E winds will pulse each
night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection S of Cuba and in the vicinity of the
Cayman Islands is associated with an upper level trough. The
eastern extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough extends E
along 10N into Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring near the coasts of Panama and Colombia in association
with this trough.

The surface pressure gradient between the central Atlantic Ocean
subtropical ridge and the comparatively lower surface pressures
in the northern sections of South America is resulting in fresh
to strong easterly trade winds,and wave heights that range from 6
feet to 8 feet in the south central Caribbean Sea, strongest just
offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and wave
heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet are in the rest of the
central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea and in the lee
of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and wave heights that range from 2
feet to 4 feet, are elsewhere.

The Bermuda-Azores High combined with the Colombian/Panamanian
low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser
Antilles into tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure ridging along 30N is dominating weather for areas of
the basin N of 20N, with mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft. On the western edge of this high, some moderate to locally
fresh southerly winds are occurring W of 70W. Also, well to the
east, fresh to strong NE winds are occurring in the vicinity of
the Canary Islands and offshore Africa. Seas in this area are 6 to
8 ft. S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades dominate with seas of 5
to 7 ft. See the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections
above for details on Atlantic convection.

The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic
forecast waters through the start of next week. The pressure
gradient between this system and tropical waves moving across the
Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally
strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba,
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through
the weekend.

$$
Konarik
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