[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1625 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W, south of
20N and moving W at 15 kt. The broad disturbance is embedded in a
large area of dry and dusty Saharan air that is suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W, south of
20N and moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this feature.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 20N
and moving W at 10 kt. The interaction between the wave and the
E Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 60 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and W
Panama and into the E Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 10N30W to 07N46W. The ITCZ extends from
07N46W to 08N55W and then from 08N57W to 10N61W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the coast
of Africa from 06N to 16N and E of 21W. Scattered moderate
convection is also present from 07N to 09N and between 46W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A line of showers extends from SE Louisiana to the Big Bend region
of Florida in the NE Gulf, especially N of 28N. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a broad area of high pressure
over the central Atlantic, allowing for tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are found in the
Bay of Campeche and western Gulf, primarily W of 90W, while gentle
to light anticyclonic winds are observed in the rest of the basin.
Seas of 3-4 ft are noted in the Florida Straits, Bay of Campeche
and western Gulf, while seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change in the marine conditions are expected
into the weekend as a ridge continues to dominate the Gulf
region. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
pulse each night into the early morning hours due to a thermal
trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for information on the
convection in the SW Caribbean Sea.

Weakening shallow showers are noted in the Windward Passage and
near the Cayman Islands, while the rest of the Caribbean Sea
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions due to a dry airmass
moving through the region. The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures
over northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly
trades in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a
recent scatterometer satellite pass, showing the strongest winds
occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the
central, eastern Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba, along with seas
of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area
combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean to
the end of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate
seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles
through tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras each night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An extensive ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics.
This weather pattern is accentuated by a large area of dry and
dusty Saharan air that is moving across the Atlantic and
suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to
locally strong easterly winds are found NE of the Leeward Islands,
especially from 14N to 23N and between 51W and 60W, along with
seas of 4-7 ft. Fresh to occasionally strong SW winds are noted
south of the monsoon trough, mainly between 20W and 30W. Seas in
these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther north, fresh to near gale-force
N-NE winds are observed N of 22N and E of 22W, with the strongest
winds occurring in the water passages in the Canary Islands and
near the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas are 6-8 ft in
the waters described. In the rest of the basin, occasionally fresh
or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident.

For the forecast, as it is normal for this time of the year, the
Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic
forecast waters through the weekend. The pressure gradient between
this system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea
will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly
winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly into Sat

$$
Delgado
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net