[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The METEO-FRANCE outlook for the 24 hours that follow the
initial forecast period, consists of the following: the
persistence or threat of Northeast near gale or gale in the
CANARIAS area. Please, refer to the following website for more
details:
http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.19
34.1919341915391.html.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. The position of this
wave was changed in order to agree with the current data. A 1012
mb low pressure center is along the wave near 10N.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 20N
southward between 20W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 17N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N to 17N between
50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward,
moving westward about 15 knots. This tropical wave is moving through
the area that is to the south of Cuba. Precipitation: no significant
deep convective precipitation is associated just with this tropical
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near
16N17W, to 10N along the 29W/30W tropical wave, to 06N36W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N36W, to 05N48W 09N54W 10N59W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is inland in Africa within 360 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough between 11W and 15W; and from 05N to
07N between 35W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from
17N northward between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the
Gulf of Mexico, including in the Caribbean Sea. Weakening but
lingering and weak rainshowers are from 27N northward from 90W
eastward.

A surface ridge passes through 29N80W in the Atlantic Ocean,
into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico and the coast of Mexico near 23N98W.

Gentle winds are in the central and NE Gulf. Moderate S winds
are in the far western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE to E winds are
off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The wave heights range
from 1 foot to 3 feet. The exception is as high as 4 feet off
the coast of Texas and off the Yucatan Peninsula.

Little change in the marine conditions is expected during the
remainder of the week, as a ridge continues to dominate the Gulf
region. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.
The exception will be near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula, where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each
night into the early morning hours, due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from
17N northward between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the
Gulf of Mexico, including in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N northward from
70W westward, including from Hispaniola to Cuba and Jamaica, and
in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level inverted trough is along 65W/66W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N southward from
70W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds, and wave heights that range
from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea.
The comparatively fastest wind speeds are offshore NW Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The comparatively highest wave
heights are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet,
are elsewhere.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond southern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N
southward from 74W westward.

The Bermuda-Azores High, located N of the area, and the
Colombian/Panama lower surface pressures, will continue to support
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
late week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are
forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles into Thu.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night
through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from
17N northward between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the
Gulf of Mexico, including in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible in the areas of the upper level
cyclonic wind flow.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A
surface ridge is along a 1026 mb high pressure center that is
near 33N46W, 31N54W 29N80W. Moderate to fresh winds are within
270 nm to 570 nm on either side of the line 30N18W 26N24W 22N29W
17N48W 18N60W. The wind speeds elsewhere are moderate or slower.
The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 27N southward
from 35W eastward. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet
elsewhere.

The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic
Ocean forecast waters into the weekend, as it is normal for this
time of the year. The pressure gradient between this system and
the tropical waves that are moving across the Caribbean Sea,
will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong
easterly winds just off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the
in the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through Fri
night.

$$
mt/ja
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net