[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 37W,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
13N between 33W and 46W.

A tropical wave is S of 17N with axis near 65W, moving W at 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 16N between 62W and 72W.

A tropical wave S of 19N with axis near 77W, moving W at 20 kt.
Isolated showers are S of 19N between 73W and 83W.

A tropical wave is S of 18N with axis near 85W, moving W at 15 kt.
Isolated showers associated with this wave are across the NW
Caribbean with scattered moderate convection being observed over
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
16N16W to 11N23W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to
08N51W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N-11N between 11W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb
high pressure near 28N92W. The basin is experiencing light to
gentle varaible wind and 1 to 2 ft seas, except along the Yucatan
peninsula where moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are
observed. Otherwise, deep layer moisture inflow from the Caribbean
into the basin and a surface trough support isolated showers over
the eastern half of the gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
region this week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to
moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the
Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
each night into the early morning hours due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle
SE winds are occurring in the NW basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level diffluent pattern and ample atmospheric moisture
are sustaining numerous moderate isolated strong convection north
of 25N between 77W and the east coast of Florida. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are noted elsewhere north of 23N and
west of 71.5W. The remainder of the Atlantic is free of
significant precipitation areas. Moderate S winds prevail north of
25N and west of 70W, except stronger from 27N-29N between
78.5W-80.5W, where strong convection prevails. Fresh SE winds
prevail south of 25N and west of 70W, except for strong E winds
between the N coast of Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

An east-west oriented subtropical ridge is along 32N between 35W-
70W. As a result, gentle to moderate trades prevail north of 25N
along with seas of 3-5 ft. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass
shows moderate to fresh NE-E trades from the ITCZ to 24N between
35W-62W, where seas are 5-7 ft. In the far E Atlantic off the
coast of Western Sahara, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas
of 7-9 ft are occurring.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the
region west of 55W early this week. The pressure gradient between
the southern periphery of the ridge and tropical waves moving
across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong
easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including
the approaches to the Windward Passage, through Mon night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected
across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. In the
eastern Atlantic, strong N to NE winds will continue from 18N-28N
between 25W and the coast of Africa through Mon.

$$
Ramos
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