[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 19N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: most
if not all the precipitation is comparatively more related to
the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 17N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the
west of the tropical wave from 15N southward. Isolated moderate
is between 50W and the tropical wave from 15N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 21N southward,
moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the
tropical, and within 90 nm to the east of the tropical wave,
from 15N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 20N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots.
This tropical wave is moving through the area of the Windward
Passage, SE Cuba, and Jamaica. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 17N to 21N between 73W and SW Haiti
and 82W and the Cayman Islands.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond southern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W 09N33W  08N36W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N36W, to 08N44W 09N51W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 90 nm to the north
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Big Bend, into
the north central Gulf of Mexico, westward in the direction of
the Texas coast. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 21N northward.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, through
southern Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the coast of Mexico near
21N97W.

Fresh NE winds are to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly
gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to
5 feet in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights
range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.

A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region into early
next week, producing mainly gentle winds with the exception of
gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the NW and west-central
waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected in the
western Gulf for the latter half of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 68W from 21N southward, moving westward
about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical,
and within 90 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 15N
southward.

A tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 20N southward, moving
westward about 15 knots.
This tropical wave is moving through the area of the Windward
Passage, SE Cuba, and Jamaica. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 17N to 21N between 73W and SW Haiti
and 82W and the Cayman Islands.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond southern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

A NE to ENE trade wind regime spans the entire Caribbean Sea.
Fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet,
are in the south central Caribbean Sea to the north of Colombia.
Mainly  gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to
3 feet, are in the NW corner and near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica
coastline. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the basin.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin
and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to fresh to locally
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through early next
week. Fresh trade winds and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range in NE
swell are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
through tonight. The aerial extent of the trades will increase
across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure N of
the area strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
Bahamas near 24N77W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
areas that are from parts of the NW Caribbean Sea including Cuba
northward, between 70W and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The southernmost part of a cold front is near 31N57W.
Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but
still lingering rainshowers are from 27N northward between 55W
and 62W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the area from 20N
northward. One 1025 mb high pressure center is near 33N42W. A
second 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N62W. Light to
gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet,
are from 27N northward between 35W and 65W. Gentle SE winds and
sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are from 27N
northward between 65W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast.
Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trade winds, and sea heights that
range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are from 10N to 27N between 35W and
the Lesser Antilles; and from the Greater Antilles to 27N
between 65W and the southern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate
NNE to NE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to
6 feet, are from 13N northward from 35W eastward. Light to
gentle winds, that include locally moderate SE and monsoonal
winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet in
southerly swell, cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

The southernmost part of a cold front is near 31N57W.
Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but
still lingering rainshowers are from 27N northward between 55W
and 62W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the area from 20N
northward. One 1025 mb high pressure center is near 33N42W. A
second 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N62W.

The Atlantic ridge dominating weather through the basin is
currently centered near Bermuda and will drift E this weekend.
This will allow trades to expand north, with pulses of strong
winds impacting areas N of Hispaniola each night through Mon.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

$$
mt
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