[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142235
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 21W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N
to 13N and E of 22W. Convective activity with the tropical wave
is likely being enhanced by the Monsoon Trough.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 09N
to 22N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are
noted within 90 nm of either side of the southern portion of the
wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W from
20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan Air Layer and a
mid-level inversion are inhibiting convection with this tropical
wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and
Senegal near 12N17W to 09N31W. The ITCZ continues from 09N31W to
07N40W. Convection is described in the Tropical Waves Section
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered moderate
convection is in the N Gulf W of 92W. Another area of scattered
moderate convection is noted over the Florida Peninsula and
eastern Gulf waters E of 86W enhanced by an upper level low
centered over northern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow prevails across the gulf waters with seas of 2-4 ft. Latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds over the southern
portion of the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge will gradually weaken as
it lifts northward to the southeastern U.S. by the upcoming
weekend. This will allow for mainly gentle winds over the Gulf
into early next week. Fresh winds will pulse again Fri evening
off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association
with a diurnal trough. Southerly winds will increase to moderate
speeds over the far western Gulf early next week. Otherwise, a
pair of upper-level lows over the south- central Gulf and over
the Bahamas will enhance showers and thunderstorms through Fri
across portions of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

No significant convection is noted over the Caribbean at this
time, as areas of Saharan dust propagate westward through the
basin. In the south-central Caribbean, the latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades. Seas are 6-7 ft in the
central Caribbean, peaking at 8-9 ft within the area of strongest
winds from 11N to 13N between 76W and 78W. In the E and W
Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades prevail with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Honduras tonight before diminishing. The gradient across the
basin will decrease, leading to mainly fresh trades across the
south-central Caribbean Fri through Sat. The gradient will
tighten again on Sun causing these winds to increase to fresh to
strong Sun through Mon night while expanding in coverage over the
central Caribbean. Large NE to E swell will impact the tropical
Atlantic Ocean zones through Sat night, then subside Sun into
Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The subtropical Atlantic ridge centered north of the area remains
in force across the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts
gentle anticyclonic winds are N of 25N, with moderate to fresh
trades S of 25N. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, except
locally 8 ft just NE of the Leeward Islands.

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) continues to be very
noticeable on satellite imagery, with the large upper level
cyclonic circulation encompassing the Bahamas, W Cuba, and
Florida. Scattered showers are noted on the eastern half of the
TUTT.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure ridge
will gradually shift northward during the next couple days. As the
pressure gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should
strengthen to fresh from tonight through the weekend, pulsing to
strong just north of Hispaniola during the evening hours. Large E
swell will impact the waters south of 22N and east of the
Bahamas from tonight through Sat before diminishing Sun into Mon.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over most
of the western part of area, including the Bahamas, through the
weekend, as an upper-level low creates additional instability.
Winds and seas may be higher in and near showers and
thunderstorms.

$$
ERA
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