[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W from 21N
southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 12N, between 27W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along from 51W from 20N
southward, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 79W from 18N
southward into the eastern Pacific, moving west at 10 kt. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted from 13N to 18N between 79W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 11N27W to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N52W to 10N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 15W
and 50W. No significant convection is occurring around the ITCZ at
this time.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean
from 11N75W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 78W and 83W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge dominates the pattern in the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface trough extends off the SE coast of Louisiana causing
numerous moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms in the
north-central Gulf, N of 23N between 85W and 95W. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds dominate the majority of the basin, with
fresh SW winds in the northeast Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NE
Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
N Gulf of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low
pressure. This system is expected to meander near the N Gulf coast
through the end of the week, and gradual development is possible
if it remains offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely to continue in the area for at least the next couple of
days. Elsewhere winds and seas should remain quiescent through the
end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure
in the SW Caribbean is producing strong easterly winds in the
central Caribbean where seas are 6-8 ft. In the eastern Caribbean,
easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 4-6 ft seas. In the NW
Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate from the E-SE with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to
near gale E trades over the S central Caribbean today and
tomorrow. By Thu as the high weakens, the trades should diminish
to fresh to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to strong E
to SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu
night before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to
begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night and continue
through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 mb high south of the Azores is the main feature in the
Atlantic Ocean. A ridge extends from the aforementioned high along
27W in the western Atlantic. North of the ridge, winds are moderate
from the SW with 4-6 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are
gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. South of 20N, easterly winds
are moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas. In the central Atlantic,
winds are generally moderate to fresh from the east with moderate
seas. In the eastern Atlantic, N-NE winds are moderate to fresh
with 6-9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending
along 27N this morning should gradually shift northward during the
next few days. As the pressure gradient increases, the E trades
south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from Wed night through the
end of the week. Large E swell will impact the zones south of 22N
from Thu night through the end of the week.

$$
AReinhart
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