[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121629
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 12W from 05N to
19N, moving west at 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 11N, between 24W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along from 50W from 06N
to 20N. moving west at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is noted
south of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends from Jamaica to eastern
Panama along 77W, from 06N to 18N, moving west at 17 kt. No
significant convection is associated with the wave.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 06N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N51W to 10N60W. Scattered
moderate convection associated with the monsoon through is
observed from 06N to 11N, between 24W and 33W. Convection along
the ITCZ is isolated and weak.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW
Caribbean, with scattered moderate convection observed within 120
nm of Costa Rica.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge dominates the pattern in the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface trough extends off the SE coast of Louisiana causing
numerous moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms in the
north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate
the majority of the basin, with fresh SW winds in the northeast
Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the trough of low pressure in the northern Gulf
is expected to meander near the N Gulf coast through the end of
the week, and gradual development is possible if it remains
offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to
continue in the area for at least the next couple of days.
Elsewhere winds and seas should remain quiescent through the end
of the week.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure
in the SW Caribbean is producing strong easterly winds in the
central Caribbean where seas are 6-8 ft. In the eastern Caribbean,
easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 4-6 ft seas. In the NW
Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate from the E-SE with 2-4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to
near gale E trades over the central Caribbean today and tomorrow.
By Thu as the high weakens, the trades should diminish to fresh
to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to strong E to SE
trades over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu night
before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to begin
impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night and continue
through the end of the week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 mb high south of the Azores is the main feature in the
Atlantic Ocean. A ridge extends from the aforementioned high along
28W in the western Atlantic. North of the ridge, winds are
moderate from the SW with 4-6 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds
are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. South of 20N, easterly
winds are moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas. In the central
Atlantic, winds are generally moderate from the east with
moderate seas. In the eastern Atlantic, N-NE winds are moderate to
fresh with 6-9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending
along 27N this morning should gradually shift northward during the
next few days. As the pressure gradient increases, the E trades
south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from Wed night through the
end of the week. Large E swell will impact the zones south of 22N
from Thu night through the end of the week.

$$
Colon-Burgos/Flynn
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