[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W
from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N-10N between 23W-27W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from 18N
southward, moving W around 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 07N-10N between 50W-60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, from 20N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding from
Santo Domingo indicated that the tropical wave passed overnight,
and that mid-level moisture decreased in the lee of the tropical
wave. No convection is noted with the tropical wave at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 10N30W. The ITCZ continues from 10N30W to 05N53W along the
coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 120 NM of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
The eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough extends from Costa
Rica at 09N83W to a 1010 mb Colombian Low at 10N75W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 10N
between 75W-83W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, recent satellite images and surface observations
indicate a weak surface trough continues in the north-central
Gulf, extending from 29N87W to 24N93W. A few showers and tstorms
are possible along this boundary today. Weak ridging extending
across Florida into the eastern Gulf continues to maintain light
to gentle return flow across the Gulf waters. Seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the gulf
will maintain gentle to moderate return flow E of 90W through
the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds W of 90W will
increase to moderate to fresh speeds early on Mon and continue
through Wed night as a broad area of low pressure develops over
Texas and extends along eastern Mexico, increasing the pressure
gradient in the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High well
northeast of the area and a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing
fresh to strong NE to E trades across much of the Caribbean
except for weaker winds over the eastern Caribbean and NW
Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft over the south Central Caribbean, 5-7
ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. No
deep convection is currently occurring over the Caribbean, except
where noted above in the vicinity of the eastern North Pacific's
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, A strong Bermuda-Azores high extending a ridge
to the northern Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trade
winds across the E basin and fresh to strong winds in the central
and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed night as two
tropical waves move through the region. Gentle to moderate winds
in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue,
and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High currently dominates the
discussion waters. The pressure gradient between the High and
lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing generally moderate to
fresh NE to E trades across the tropical North Atlantic. Seas are
6-8 ft south of 25N and 4-6 ft north of 25N. No deep convection
is occurring away from the tropical waves and ITCZ/monsoon trough
mentioned earlier.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will
continue to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will
maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through
the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will
develop tonight N of 29N and continue through Tue morning as a
frontal boundary moves across the waters N of the region. This
will slightly weaken the ridge Sun night through Mon night.

$$
Landsea/Ramos
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