[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082305
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Localized gale force winds are expected to pulse once again
in the Gulf of Venezuela later this evening. Seas will range 8 to
10 ft by tonight. Winds and seas will improve by Sat morning, and
winds are expected to stay below gale force through the rest of
the weekend. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
product issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 12N, between 19W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 11N to 12N, between 44W and 49W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 66W from 19N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
with this feature at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 86W from 23N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted S of 17N, between 84W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 09N29W. The ITCZ continues from 09N29W to 06N45W then W of a
tropical wave near 07N50W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the African coast
from 10N to 16N and E of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted from 02N to 10N between 30W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge with a relaxed pressure gradient is causing
favorable marine conditions across the Gulf. A trough extends
across the western and central Gulf from 18N93W to 28N87W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near this trough in the
eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N to 22N between 90W and 95W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 50 nm of the
trough. Winds are light to gentle across the basin with 1-3 ft
seas. A few weak showers are observed in the Bay of Campeche and
NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the northern
Gulf will shift south to along 28N through Sat night, then shift
south to the central Gulf Sun through mid-week. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. NE to E
winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon.
Fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue
night and diminish Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela.

Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
two waves moving across the Caribbean.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds
across the central Caribbean with 7-10 ft seas. Easterly winds
are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas.
In the northwest Caribbean, winds are moderate from the E-SE with
3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten enough over
the southwestern Caribbean to allow for winds to pulse back up to
gale force for a few hours tonight in the Gulf of Venezuela. A
tropical wave that extends from the western tip of Cuba to inland
eastern Honduras and to northern Costa Rica will move west of the
Caribbean tonight. Fresh winds prevail behind the wave over the
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the
wake of the wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly
across the basin this weekend, then increase from Mon afternoon
through Wed as a tropical wave currently near 64W moves across the
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details on the
two waves moving across the Atlantic.

The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the pattern. In the western
Atlantic, gentle southerly winds increase to moderate
southeasterlies south of 25N, and fresh easterlies south of 22N.
Seas gradually increase southward from 4-8 ft. In the central
Atlantic, gentle winds increase to moderate to fresh easterlies
south of 25N. Seas gradually increase southward from 3 ft to 6-8
ft. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the
N-NE with 5-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge will extend
along 29N and E of northeastern Florida tonight, with the
associated gradient maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds S of
25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of
Hispaniola in the evenings and at night through Sat. The ridge
will shift S to along 27N over the weekend as a cold front
approaches from the NW. The front will move slowly southeastward
and stall off the southeastern U.S. coast. Fresh SW winds ahead of
the front over the far NW forecast waters will shift northeast of
the area late Sun night into Mon as front dissipates. High
pressure will then build westward near 29N next week.

$$
AReinhart
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