[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071051 AAC
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W and S of 20N,
moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection in
association with this wave is well ahead of it from 08N to 13N
between 32W and 43W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 10N
to 21N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 10N between 51W and 55W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending from 23N72W to
09N78W, moving W 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted across the northern portion of the wave from the
Windward Passage to the sough coast of Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N28W.
The ITCZ stretches from 10N28W to 07N35W, then resumes W of a
tropical wave from 07N41W to the coastal state of Amapa Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 03.5N to 07.5N between 14W and 35W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches
from coastal NW Colombia across the SW Caribbean and Caribbean
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica to near 10N86W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm either side of
the trough from the coasts of Colombia to Costa Rica.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches from 29N83W to 24N86W, where scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm either
side of the trough, to the north of 25N. Elsewhere, fairly
tranquil conditions prevail. A weak ridge extends from the Big
Bend region westward across the basin and is maintaining light to
locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft. A thermal
trough as shifted westward off of the Yucatan Peninsula and is
along 92W. Associated weather has recently dissipated. A few
clusters of moderate convection persist along the Mexican coastal
waters, offshore of Veracruz and La Pesca areas.

For the forecast, the surface ridge across the N Gulf will
reorganize along 28N Fri through Sat then sink S and across the
central Gulf through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
will prevail through this time. The low-level trough across the
eastern Gulf will move slowly westward and weaken through
tonight, accompanied by scattered moderate convection. NE to E
winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat and Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section above for details on the wave extending across the
central Caribbean.

The remainder of the basin is experiencing fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong trades are present
in the south-central Caribbean south of 16N, with the strongest
winds near the Colombian coast. Seas are 6-7 ft across these
waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are evident in the
rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 3-6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the tropical wave across the Windward Passage will
move across the western Caribbean tonight through Fri night.
Winds and seas will increase to fresh to strong today through Sat
over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of
the area in the wake of this tropical wave. Seas are expected to
build to 10-1 ft offshore of Colombia tonight through early Fri
morning. Winds and seas will diminish significantly across the
basin Sat night through Sun night, then increase late Mon and Mon
night as another tropical wave moves across the eastern and
central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A broad TUTT low is centered north of Puerto Rico near 24N66W, and
is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from
both the Atlantic and Caribbean coasts of Hispaniola along 70W,
east-northeastward across the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico to
23N62W. The low will shift slowly westward today and help to
produce strong afternoon convection. The rest of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge centered
across the NE Atlantic, southwestward to near Bermuda then west-
southwest to northern Florida. Stable conditions and a large area
of Saharan Air dominate the Atlantic east of 60W, suppressing the
development of significant convection. W of 55W, mainly moderate
E to SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent, becoming moderate
S winds to the north of 28N. Fresh to locally strong easterly
winds S of 24N and between 35W and 60W. Seas in this area
are 5 to 8 ft. A region of mainly strong winds is found off the
coasts of Western Sahara, Morocco, and the Canary Islands with
seas of 6 to 9 ft, and is accompanied by a thick layer of Saharan
Air and widespread dust. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic will persist through
Fri night to produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N.
Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola
each evening and night through Sat. A cold front will move slowly
SE off the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW
winds across the far NW waters early Sat. These fresh SW winds
will shift eastward to between 68W and 78W Sat night through Sun
night before shifting NE and out of the regional waters Mon and
Mon night.

$$
Stripling
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