[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from west of the
Cabo Verde Islands at 18N southward, and moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N between
25W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W from Puerto Rico
to Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted behind the wave near Trinidad and Tobago from
07N to 13N between 59W and 64W, and also ahead of the wave near
Puerto Rico.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 89W, now inland over
Central America and extending S into the East Pacific, moving W at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the coasts of the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough extends from Senegal to 10N25W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 08N to 13N
between 18W and 25W. An ITCZ extends from 08N30W across 07N45W
to north of Guyana near 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 08N between 32W and 57W. The eastern extending
of the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate
convection over the SE Caribbean Sea, including the coast of
Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convection associated with a mid-level trough over Alabama has
moved well inland this afternoon. A weak surface trough over the
Florida Peninsula is producing scattered moderate convection
within 60 nm of the Florida coast. A surface ridge extends
southwestward from a 1019 mb high south of Alabama to the western
Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are
found over the north- central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf except for near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where
locally fresh NE winds are ongoing.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending across the northern
Gulf will gradually lift north into Wed night. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. NE to E
winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW
Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat and Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper-level low centered near 18N83W is aiding in scattered
moderate convection over and near Cuba. Convergent trades are
producing similar conditions near Jamaica and Haiti. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for details about
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.

The gradient between a 1026 mb high east of Bermuda and a 1010 mb
low near the coast of Panama is generating fresh to strong ENE to
E trades and 7 to 9 ft seas over the south-central basin.
Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are
present for the west-central and north-central basin. Gentle
monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are seen across the
southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E to ESE trades and 3 to 5
ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean along
66W, will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean tonight,
and across the central Caribbean Wed through Thu night. Winds and
seas will increase again to fresh to strong Thu over the south-
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the
wake of this tropical wave. These winds are expected to diminish
to mainly fresh Sat through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the Florida Peninsula is inducing scattered
moderate convection between the Bahamas and Florida. An upper-
level low near 23N62W is causing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection north of the Leeward Islands from 19N to 26N
between 54W to 62W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1026 mb high pressure located in the central Atlantic near
32N51W is providing light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north
of 26N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther south,
moderate to locally fresh NE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
evident from 08N to 26N between 30W and the Greater Antilles.
Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring
near the Canary Islands and along the African coast N of 17N.
Gentle to moderate NE and southeasterly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to northeastern Florida will persist through the rest of
the week. A low-level trough extending from the NW Bahamas to
23N80W will move across South Florida and the Keys tonight and
reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into Wed
morning. Fresh winds, rough seas and active weather will accompany
this trough, while fresh winds and increasing seas will build
westward and to south of 24N behind the trough through Wed. Winds
will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola each
evening and night through the period.

$$
Konarik
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