[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042255
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from
02N-18N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 09N and E of 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 61W from
06N-23N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails across the southern portion of the wave mainly S of 11N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from
09N-22N. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on
either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from 17N14W to 07N26W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N26W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted
within 60 nm on either side of the boundaries.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Panama coast and
nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is enhancing convection across the Bay of
Campeche. A surface ridge prevails across the basin providing
light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas across north-central
and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2
to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will extend across the
northern Gulf through Tue night before drifting northward to
along 30N through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will
pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the Caribbean Sea.

Tight gradient between a 1027 mb high over the central Atlantic,
and eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough across the
southwestern Caribbean is sustaining a E trade wind regime for
the entire basin except the southwestern portion. Fresh to strong
trades with 8 to 11 ft seas prevail across the south-central
Caribbean. Fresh trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found over the
north-central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to
7 ft exist over the northwest and west-central basin. Light to
gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are evident for the
southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8
ft prevail for the eastern basin.

For the forecast, the tropical wave will move out of the western
Caribbean and into Central America tonight. Behind the wave, a
surge of strong winds and high seas will gradually diminish into
mid-week. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will move across
the northeast Caribbean Tue and across the central Caribbean Wed
and Thu. Winds and seas will increase again Thu over the south-
central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area
following this tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A broad Atlantic ridge extends from a 1027 mb high over the
central Atlantic at 32N49W to central Florida. This feature is
maintaining gentle to moderate NE to E trades with 4 to 7 ft seas
N of 8N between 25W and 61W. Light to gentle E trades and seas
at 3 to 5 ft are noted north of Greater Antilles between 61W and
the Florida/Georgia coast. For the eastern Atlantic, NNE
moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted north of
17N between the African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate
southeasterly trades and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will persist through the
week. The northern portion of a strong tropical wave currently
over central Cuba is supporting fresh to strong wind, rough seas
and active weather across the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southern Bahamas. These winds and seas will gradually diminish
through tonight across the SE Bahamas as the wave moves westward,
but strong winds may still pulse off the northern coast of
Hispaniola through Tue night.

$$
ERA
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