[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1705 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of 18N
and moving W around 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a dry and
stable environment and no significant convection is noted with it
at this time.

A robust Caribbean tropical wave has its axis from 25N71W to
08N77W, extending across the SE Bahamas, Haiti and W Colombia,
and moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring from 15N to 25N and between 65W
and 75W. The strongest convection is affecting southern Hispaniola
and the offshore waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
depict fresh to near gale- force winds from 12N to 25N and between
66W and 75W. The strongest winds are found in the offshore waters
of southern Hispaniola and N Colombia and NE Venezuela. Localized
winds to gale force are possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Seas of 7-10 ft are found in the described waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N23W to 04N33W to
05N43W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N46W to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed south of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ to 05N, E of 27W. Similar convection is also noted from north
of the ITCZ to 10N and between 47W and NE South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft is triggering some shower activity over the
Florida panhandle and extending into the NE Gulf of Mexico,
especially N of 28N and E of 88W. The rest of the basin is
dominated by a weak pressure regime that maintains fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft
prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf
through Tue night before drifting north of the area through mid
week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail
through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near
the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active
wave in the central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the influence of the strong tropical wave in the
central Caribbean Sea, fresh to occasionally strong trades are
found in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate to locally fresh
trades are present in the NW and SW Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in
the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the NW and SW Caribbean. The
weather conditions are fairly tranquil in the remainder of the
basin, except for an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms S
of 13N and W of 80W, affecting the waters off SE Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave is located from western Haiti
to near the Colombia/Panama border. This tropical wave will
continue moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean
today and the western Caribbean through Mon, accompanied by a
broad surge of strong winds and high seas across both the Atlantic
and Caribbean waters. Winds and seas will then diminish over most
of the basin through mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
start to increase again by Thu over the south-central Caribbean
as high pressure builds north of the area following the next
tropical wave moving through the northern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active
wave extending from the SE Bahamas to Colombia.

A few showers are located off NE Florida, while the remainder of
the western tropical Atlantic (W of 55W) remains fairly tranquil
under the influence of the strong subtropical ridge north of the
Azores. Outside of the influence of the strong tropical wave in
the SE Bahamas, moderate to fresh easterly winds are evident S of
25N and W of 55W, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds N of 25N.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the
aforementioned ridge and an outbreak of Saharan dust continues to
move westward across the region, helping to suppress the
development of convection. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly
winds prevail between 20W and 55W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Over
the far NE Atlantic, mainly E of 20W and N of 20N, fresh to strong
N-NE winds affect the waters off the Canary Islands, Western
Sahara and Morocco. Seas in the area are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to northeast Florida will persist through the week. The
northern portion of a strong tropical wave currently over western
Haiti is supporting strong winds and rough seas near the Turks and
Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas. These winds and seas will
diminish through tonight as the wave moves westward, but strong
winds may still pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola through
late Mon.

$$
Delgado
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